GFS is throwing the confluence away quickly 
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Biggest issue you see right off the bat w/ the 12z GFS is the northern stream wave is so far north, having it up near northern Manitoba instead of the Great Lakes obviously means there's nothing to suppress the SW US wave so it shoots towards the Lakes.
Everyone just take a deep breath and remember it's just one run of the operational GFS, these kind of model errors w/ waves in the northern branch of the jet are common in the medium range.
Everyone just take a deep breath and remember it's just one run of the operational GFS, these kind of model errors w/ waves in the northern branch of the jet are common in the medium range.
iGRXY
Member
Watching it I had a bad feeling seeing that much ridging out ahead of it in the south central and central US. Just screamed cutter to the GL
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That kind of ridging doesn't really matter if the northern stream waves are in the right spot.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is the moment of truth right here in general sense. Does a big chunk of this PV lobe over northern Manitoba slide to the SE underneath the Baffin Bay block like the ICON & previous GFS runs have showed or does it hang back towards Saskatchewan? It's pretty much anyone's guess at this point, but the answer to that question determines whether we get a storm or not.
GEFS has a more miller Bish look again, nothing set in stone here
Cary_Snow95
Member
Worth mentioning that the 00z Euro also had the low up in Ohio
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Damn a pure bomb ~200 miles east of Hatteras.
Folks, keep in mind that about half of that over MA is from the first system. Here's the second:
Chasecation 2021 ?
ajr
Member
SSW = sudden severe weather.
UKMET looked solid 
ajr
Member
Interesting thread — take away seems to be that the MA should be more excited than we are (what else is new?):
Nice track but N/S isn’t as ideal
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
*Worth noting the CMC ENS can be to cold and show more ice then reality* but this is what it looks like 
NCSNOW
Member
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Agree . Think Webb has Identified the answer to whether we get the goods or not. It shows around hr 120 onward. It will be all about the N/S lobe and its position. Ukmet at that last frame had good Cad building down into NC looking at DPs, NE Wind barbs etc. Well see , but we are sitting on the fence and the pendullum usually trends/swings unfavorably for us at this juncture.