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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Still think everybody east of the APPS should definitely watch for some form of a winter storm as we are still 6 days away and I don't trust these models beyond 4 days at this point with the amount of flip flopping they do. Definitely rooting for the new GFS as that wouldn't take much to get the Upper 3rd of SC and all of NC in the game for a major snowstorm but around here those Miller B CADs have been the most productive and most common type storms for the last few years. The 0Z run for the New GFS was very nice for Upper SC and all of NC. Hopefully we can continue these trends and get away from the Miller B ICE scenario but don't be worried if the models go to hell and a hand basket over the next 48 hours only to then come back with the storm in the day 3-5 range.
 
Also want to point out some research im doing this winter on how the lack of very warm days over North Carolina so far and the absence of thunderstorms this winter. This ties into the amount of ground moisture and fog. All of this compared to previous winters has been very different esp for the Charlotte metro. Usually by now we would see some wild swings in temps (roasting) but it’s been far from a roller coaster in the case of temperatures.
 
The lack of roller coaster swings actually hurts our winter wx chances. Stable temp swings the entire winter and over abundance of ground moisture is a recipe for disaster east of the mtns.
 
It’s obvious the pattern is finally changing tho. Systems are bringing much less water with them as some areas of NC are below normal for the first time in 2 years. (RIP to all those lost their lives in Alexander from flooding). We can still get heavy moisture events in the new pattern tho but some drying out will do us good. Maybe even let the cold air in? We will see.
 
Webberweather53 said:
GFS Para is a Mar 1927 esque solution synoptically, an earlier phase w/ the northern stream and you'll get 2x as much snow in nc. Get that look later in the winter season when the jet stream is weaker/slower and wavelengths are shorter, yikea.
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Yeah, but wouldn't a phase amp the storm up and bring it North, along with the rain/snow line? Or would the NE trough keep the system South and keep it from cutting? Maybe this is a different setup than we usually have.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Yeah, but wouldn't a phase amp the storm up and bring it North, along with the rain/snow line? Or would the NE trough keep the system South and keep it from cutting? Maybe this is a different setup than we usually have.
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That piece of N/S energy would drag down significantly colder air especially aloft and keep the storm south
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s obvious the pattern is finally changing tho. Systems are bringing much less water with them as some areas of NC are below normal for the first time in 2 years. (RIP to all those lost their lives in Alexander from flooding). We can still get heavy moisture events in the new pattern tho but some drying out will do us good. Maybe even let the cold air in? We will see.
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Unreal the amount of damage still around my county from the flooding. Will be years before its all put back together.
 
I'm gonna be rooting hard for this northern stream potential vorticity lobe over Ontario on the GFS at day 5 to dig SW towards the Great Lakes/the red dotted area on the image below in coming model runs. I'm not sure if we can get all the way there but even a trend towards it would be nice. If we manage to get it in this spot, it would suppress the SE ridge and force our wave over the Desert SW on a more southward trajectory closer to the I-20 corridor (vs I-64 as it currently stands). It would also inject more cold air into this setup, shift our sfc high further south & strengthen it w/ the additional confluence over the E US provided by the stronger height gradient over the Lakes, NE US, and SE Canada.

Screen Shot 2021-01-21 at 9.32.07 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm gonna be rooting hard for this northern stream potential vorticity lobe over Ontario on the GFS at day 5 to dig SW towards the Great Lakes/the red dotted area on the image below in coming model runs. I'm not sure if we can get all the way there but even a trend towards it would be nice. If we manage to get it in this spot, it would suppress the SE ridge and force our wave over the Desert SW on a more southward trajectory closer to the I-20 corridor (vs I-64 as it currently stands). It would also inject more cold air into this setup, shift our sfc high further south & strengthen it w/ the additional confluence over the E US provided by the stronger height gradient over the Lakes, NE US, and SE Canada.

View attachment 66821
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You see we aren't asking for much. Drop a little energy further south is all we are asking for. Webber even made you a pretty graphic so nothing goes wrong. Please make this happen @God
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm gonna be rooting hard for this northern stream potential vorticity lobe over Ontario on the GFS at day 5 to dig SW towards the Great Lakes/the red dotted area on the image below in coming model runs. I'm not sure if we can get all the way there but even a trend towards it would be nice. If we manage to get it in this spot, it would suppress the SE ridge and force our wave over the Desert SW on a more southward trajectory closer to the I-20 corridor (vs I-64 as it currently stands). It would also inject more cold air into this setup, shift our sfc high further south & strengthen it w/ the additional confluence over the E US provided by the stronger height gradient over the Lakes, NE US, and SE Canada.

View attachment 66821
Click to expand...

The 18z parallel GFS from January 19th is probably the closest model run I've seen to this scenario thus far.

gfsp_z500_vort_us_fh168-204.gif

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-210.gif
 
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