Meh, I’m not mad, plenty of time to go either way, don’t see the reason to cliff dive yet
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS Para is a Mar 1927 esque solution synoptically, an earlier phase w/ the northern stream and you'll get 2x as much snow in nc. Get that look later in the winter season when the jet stream is weaker/slower and wavelengths are shorter, yikea.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Some people will think this sounds totally crazy, but if we make these subtle changes at 500mb at day 7 on the 0z GFS run, we'll end up w/ Mar 1927 jr in NC
So the 6z GFS was about the same with the low placement. But it looks to pull in a little more cold air giving a good portion of NC a large snow.
24hr Kuchera at hour 180:
Clem282340
Member
Looks like sc might not see anything but cold rain
We're still 7 days out. We do have a high pressure pushing in from the north. There's going to be a lot of changes (good & bad) over the coming days. But something many have stated on the board, the models can be slow to depict the full affects of CAD. **I would like to see the high to the north trend a little stronger or a little more south. It wouldn't take much, and again we're still 7 days out.
NCSNOW
Member
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6z New GFS: What a Beaut!
View attachment 66809
View attachment 66809
SouthSideYankee
Member
Both gfs and para gfs look almost identical for the end of month storm. I'm starting to get a tad excited.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Looking good for I-40 north and eastern nc at the moment
Clem282340
Member
It needs to come on further south so the i85 corridor can get in on it as well
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Well sadly that doesn't happen very often. I-40 is always the big winner in storms like these. TONS of time to go though
Clem282340
Member
Sounds like i40 is the new i85 now
It's been briefly mentioned already maybe, but i think it's worth mentioning again. That first system that hits the Mid Atlantic and Northeast a couple days before our potential system for the Carolinas is a huge player in the cold air that will be available. A robust snow pack left behind from that first system will do wonders for our cold air feed. Something to watch out for, I think we actually need to pull for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for that first system.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah but the whole never want to be the bullseye 7 day out thing.....we are due though have not have more than 6-7" here in a decade....we tend to get a footer every 10-12 yrs...
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
True but you never want to be south of the bullseye 7 days out either
I understand, frustrating times for some, but a few of you really need to use the whamby thread to free up this thread from complaining clutter. Thanks
Downeastnc
Member
I dunno the NW trend is usually a thing but this setup might actually see the opposite.....I wouldnt worry to much if I lived anywhere in NC and from the Triangle into the central coastal plains you got to like where we are sitting 6 days out....we just need that low to be 75-100 miles SE of Cape Hatteras moving ENE.....Webber makes a good point and there are times when the SE trend happens as the models come in with a stronger more southern high as we close in.....