Gonna be breaking out the wind shear/cape maps soon 
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Teetering on the edge between a severe and icy CAD look. Hopefully it's the former
Buzzsaw block is delayed but not denied ! 
It honestly ain’t that bad haha a little SER was bound to happen at some point .. we won’t die or burn up it seems very transient and also same models have the -NAO picking back up after this point
Yeah severe is fun late Feb thru October. Severe is not fun in January.
Just a reminder to everyone, when the SER nudges itself in during February there’s usually no turning back.
Starting to wonder if all the advertised kick the can down the road real cold is going to materalize. Hoping but not going to get my hopes up. Maybe for my area it makes it and maybe you all get CAD but if the ser is too much and the arctic doesn't get far enough south were are all in trouble.
Good thing we are getting it in Jan
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z Euro tries to CAD us twice this run w/ the 2nd one showing up at day 10 w/ more cold air that time around. Details will obviously matter a lot, but the longwave looks similar on the ensembles
LickWx
Member
@Ollie Williams has a gif of patterns that preview a CAD miller B system and honestly it had some pretty stout southeast ridging previewing it, one thing i notice differently is the SE Canada vortex and it’s strength vs our regular run of the mill southeast/death ridge
LickWx
Member
Nah, that’s just excessively pessimistic . You have to look at current conditions and give weight to them . Fact is the most defining feature that has yet to fail to materialize is the -NAO. I would bet on it until proven otherwise .
Classic example of a good pattern, but bad luck/timing, this wave was once the system that looked like a southern slider, the S/S energy gets sheared and the N/S stuff deepens and we get dry cold with maybe perhaps a flzzard if it digs deep enough, this is a pattern capable of producing but isn’t unfortunately early next week 
We’ve seen a lot of semi unfortunate trends as of late but usually models giveth what they taketh eventually .. I’m thinking next few days they will start showing the more favorable pattern getting closer than just 300+ hours away
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I know I've posted these before but OTD back in 1912 the first of 2 one foot snowstorms hit parts of Robeson, Bladen, & Sampson counties that winter.
Just for perspective, Lumberton has only seen one other 1+ foot storm since 1895 (Mar 1980).
Talk about getting insanely lucky.
Just for perspective, Lumberton has only seen one other 1+ foot storm since 1895 (Mar 1980).
Talk about getting insanely lucky.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
So some areas got close to 24" from these 2 storms. I wonder what the rest of that winter was like. I wonder if some of those areas got more than 30" when combined with other snow events that season ?
Yeah, I posted it a while back. I'm working on fixing my climatology calculations, so until then, I won't be making any more maps. But yeah, you make a good point, any ridge over the CONUS will remain transient as long as we have a trough over the Atlantic. Although I do think we're at a crossroad between a ridge over the GL/NE (Miller A), and a strong ridge there (Miller B). Anything in between just causes systems to head north.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nah that was it for them lol. Lumberton basically got more snow than everyone east of the mtns, I think that's the only time this has happened too
jeez what a Winter. Holy smokes.