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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

CaryWx said:
Webb, I know you predicted this (SER) as an unwelcomed necessary event albeit short lived, in order to get the cold in later. Have we lost our 15th-22nd (or so) window now and have basically a one week opportunity ( ~23rd-~31st) to have the best players to score? Assuming Feb still up in the air.
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We'll have maybe 1-2 flizzard events to show for this period early on as a pair of upper lows traverse thru the eastern US prior to the appearance of a SER. Looks like a CAD event could appear near the end of the window ~Jan 24-25 but too early to speculate on much of anything wintry there atm, other than that, this window is almost lost at best.

A lot of the following week depends on how this NE Pacific wave break evolves, a dampened, suppressed NE Pac ridge and the SE ridge may not be as strong but we lose our feed of cold air from Siberia.

If the ridge is a little stronger and stays primarily over the NE Pacific, we have a better cold feed but the SE ridge may end up being stronger, and that would arguably be a worst case scenario and is one we currently see on the ensembles (at least we know it will change in some way from that)

What we really want here is a very amplified anticyclonic wave break that moves the center of the ridge into at least central-north Alaska or the Beaufort & Chukchi Seas instead of the NE Pacific, because that'll give us a better cold feed and likely dislodge pieces of the TPV that would potentially come towards the CONUS & south-central Canada, injecting extremely cold & deep arctic air masses into this pattern
 
KyloG said:
I feel like we have gone through this before...cold patterns int the day 10+ that never materialize. -NAO/-EPO look solid so you would think it eventually bleeds east.
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Yeah last 2 years and 2017, there was no hope then because how positive it was (NAO/AO), southeast ridge had all the room to become the southeast block, the -NAO hopefully isnt a headfake heading forward, would think it wouldn’t and it would be for real given the state of the strat PV but I could Be wrong
 
Sounding like winter (measurable snow chances in central NC) are slipping away? At least for January.
 
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