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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Its a nightmare here in Birmingham
So where is Ji with the #WinterCancel lol. JB as of last evening is still on board with Cold and stormy mid Jan-mid Fab Feb? and Bam says week two thru Fab Feb AN? As for Frosty he is beginning to start that dreadful melting process from the inside out!
Huh? There hasn't been any ops or ensembles showing any of the 500mb pattern translating to the surface. That was supposed to change by the 15th. Guess what? More of the same thru the 25th now. Keep punting much farther and its Feb. How do you feel about going into Feb snowless in a La Niña with a big ole Aleutian ridge parked there? I'll pass on that. You better hope that -NAO holds.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We have a whamby thread for a reason
EPS mean is 44 for highs from 1/23 on; still solid to have a mean at -5 at D10+
Hmm....
BL too warm but.... nope nope nope don't get sucked in to this crap Lol
BL too warm but.... nope nope nope don't get sucked in to this crap Lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
-EPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNAs are usually snowiest over the north-central Rockies & upper midwest. We sure could use some snow cover up there because what we currently do have is melting off.
My posts are not wamby sir. Thats my analysis of the pattern. Please show me where any model has translated any cold to the surface during this great pattern? It's not there. And there is none on the horizon. I'm not getting into an argument about whether it can snow or not with marginal temps. It sure can. But its clear this pattern isn't doing what you or anyone else thought it would do.
Shaggy
Member
We did ok with it. My sons car was covered in a crazy heavy frost with lots of crystal formations
Attachments
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I didn't realize Brick hacked your account today.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
cyclogent
Member
hello there
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Probably the thickest freezing fog frost I've seen myself. Such an interesting sight and formations these frost crystals make.
SnowNiner
Member
I'm also frustrated with the lack of cold. However I think we understand why; the pacific has been so bad. Now we're getting to a time period where the -EPO will help us to tap some cold, but because we lose the +PNA it dumps it out west. That gets cold into the CONUS but it doesn't get it to us in the SE. I think the -PNA is going to cause more of a SE ridge issue than we think, and that will be our cold problem unless we get a CAD set up. GEFS highlights that.
iGRXY
Member
Ahhhh good to see the usual people on here bitching about no snow and winter is over before we've even hit January 15th. It makes me laugh seeing people hug the GFS and the GEFS the way they do. The GFS is garbage beyond 4 days at most. The GEFS has become a warm biased model in the medium and long range that tries to break a -NAO when you have a SSW that isn't going to allow it to happen. We have been supposedly getting the SER around here since before christmas and the last time I checked it hasn't paid rent once so it hasn't shown up at all. When you have the METEOROLOGISTS on here telling you to relax and things look good but you have the same whiny people wanting to try and argue with them it gets old quickly. They have told us multiple times that you are going to get run to run changes, the GFS is a garbage model in the long range, the GEFS has tried to kill the -NAO and bring on the SER all winter and it hasn't happened, and a -EPO looks to be on the horizon to dump colder air into the CONUS. Before you think about arguing with meteorologist about weather ... think to yourself, "Am I really that smart and do I REALLY know what I am talking about?"
Fountainguy97
Member
Globals have a pretty bullish look for the NW snow events this weekend. Two separate NW flow drivers will move through. UK, CMC, GFSv16 all mirror the OP GFS. Will be interesting to see what the mesoscales show for this. I'd take a couple days in the 20s with NW snow showers.
The day 7-8 deal getting screwed up by the low dropping in from the AK low. After that the -EPO does build and hopefully, some deep cold gets dumped into the conus for the last week of January.
Looking at surface temps and the upper air pattern on the GFS and GEFS from D10 - D16, near average temps look to be supported. The EPS at D10 looks slightly cooler for parts of the SE. I have no idea how the end of the EPS evolves. But we appear to be turning our eyes from evolving to a potentially favorable SE winter pattern to one that is a potentially favorable Rockies and Midwest pattern, at least from the maps that I can see. Maybe the maps that I can't see show something different.
None of that is to say that we can't get a winter storm that affects many areas of the SE. But from what I can see, the truly cold air and low dews still reside way up in the Arctic or far NW Canada.
None of that is to say that we can't get a winter storm that affects many areas of the SE. But from what I can see, the truly cold air and low dews still reside way up in the Arctic or far NW Canada.