Ensembles will be beautiful I hope
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Shaggy
Member
Gfs is struggling with this pattern change big time. Havent watched as much recently because I've been on nightshift but euro seems a bit more stable with less run to run craziness.
wow you don’t see this often... ensemble member 10 AGAIN shows a massive board wide major eastern US storm.. two runs in a row
Clem282340
Member
Do you believe we will get something like that or a scaled down version of it
Any ensemble member is just a possible outcome but this one a very unlikely one ... some winter weather is possible in the southeast and I still like somewhere around the 17-20th for people living in the southeast to see some snow but where and what is hard to tell right now .. never think an ensemble member is truth or even a operational 7+ days out
I'm not going to cliff dive on getting a decent snow before the end of the month. But I'm starting to really doubt any Arctic air makes it here where we don't have to worry about temps.
SouthSideYankee
Member
This one screwed a lot of people in Central NC. I couldn't even get 1" to stick.
Clem282340
Member
Is this from the gfs and how many members did it show showing snow
Montanasnow30
Member
Can you post the full version of the gefs map
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NCSNOW
Member
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New GFS 6z: Then has 2 seperate Ice/Mix events way out 1/24 and 1/29. LOL all we got to salivate over this morning. Hopefully we get better news at 12z. But I'll be honest I'm not feeling or seeing it this morning looking at models. All I see is run of the mill climo wx. Which for everyone outside elevation is Highs in the upper 40's, lows in upper 20s near 30. Chilly, sometimes Cold Rains.
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Once again 6z GFS is not pushing any real cold into the se thru day 10. More of the same. Average temps and cold rain. The difference I see is maybe we have real cold off to the north and west to work with if we get lucky. I think it has better potential than the current pattern where we've torched our source regions for a month now with Pac flow. But it will dump in the west first and have to come east, but should be colder than we have now still. Maybe the NAO and the 50/50 will keep the storm track suppressed. But its clear the 15th thru the 25th is not going to be what many hoped for.
Super mega frost here this morning - 28 with freezing fog. I’ve never seen so much on my truck.
whatalife
Moderator
I would agree for the most part. The 500 15th-25th argues for colder temps. However surface temps during this time frame look average. Guess it’s still a waiting game.
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tennessee storm
Member
Pattern to me looks kind meh due lack of freshly colder air available . Hopefully things will changeI would agree for the most part. The 500 15th-25th argues for colder temps. However surface temps during this time frame look average. Guess it’s still a waiting game.
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anafront 
Way too many negative people out there with a pattern like this... guys chill out there’s more to winter than two sets of deterministic Gfs model outputs ??? patients is always rewarded
Yes, with cold rains. In some cases, cool rains.
Montanasnow30
Member
Does anybody know if this is reaching the ground?
Freezing fog advisory here is a bust, but a very widespread frost for sure.