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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Rain Cold said:
Looking at surface temps and the upper air pattern on the GFS and GEFS from D10 - D16, near average temps look to be supported. The EPS at D10 looks slightly cooler for parts of the SE. I have no idea how the end of the EPS evolves. But we appear to be turning our eyes from evolving to a potentially favorable SE winter pattern to one that is a potentially favorable Rockies and Midwest pattern, at least from the maps that I can see. Maybe the maps that I can't see show something different.

None of that is to say that we can't get a winter storm that affects many areas of the SE. But from what I can see, the truly cold air and low dews still reside way up in the Arctic or far NW Canada.
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Really think the last week of January we finally see ensembles start showing BN 2m's. EPS showing many members with BN conus. Yeah it does feel like we are kicking the can down the road and with the prospect of mod/strong NINA Feb's going against us...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-1662400.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-1662400.png
 
I think the key here is the modes resolving the EPO domain. It seems to me that more than any other teleconnection there is such a tight rope act for us to either receive a massive cold dump vs ridging into the SE. the models are teeter tottering back and forth on this and will for a few days, I suspect. That high pressure north of Alaska makes a huge difference in our sensible weather here, but if it can drive down that Siberian air with the persistent negative NAO we will do well.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
My posts are not wamby sir. Thats my analysis of the pattern. Please show me where any model has translated any cold to the surface during this great pattern? It's not there. And there is none on the horizon. I'm not getting into an argument about whether it can snow or not with marginal temps. It sure can. But its clear this pattern isn't doing what you or anyone else thought it would do.
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
My posts are not wamby sir. Thats my analysis of the pattern. Please show me where any model has translated any cold to the surface during this great pattern? It's not there. And there is none on the horizon. I'm not getting into an argument about whether it can snow or not with marginal temps. It sure can. But its clear this pattern isn't doing what you or anyone else thought it would do.
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you are right. When others don't get it right they wiggle around the facts then get feelings hurt when called out. Then when other's post a different mets forecast they talk about how wrong they are. No met has been right on winter the last 3 years. To many people can't stand when they wrong but the majority have been even some that have been around for years. I appreciate all on here that follow the models and give opinions and thats what they are opinions. Some on here are great and never have been to school for meteorology and others are great mets. Either way enjoy the weather as its the only weather you got. From another met lol
 
iGRXY said:
Ahhhh good to see the usual people on here bitching about no snow and winter is over before we've even hit January 15th. It makes me laugh seeing people hug the GFS and the GEFS the way they do. The GFS is garbage beyond 4 days at most. The GEFS has become a warm biased model in the medium and long range that tries to break a -NAO when you have a SSW that isn't going to allow it to happen. We have been supposedly getting the SER around here since before christmas and the last time I checked it hasn't paid rent once so it hasn't shown up at all. When you have the METEOROLOGISTS on here telling you to relax and things look good but you have the same whiny people wanting to try and argue with them it gets old quickly. They have told us multiple times that you are going to get run to run changes, the GFS is a garbage model in the long range, the GEFS has tried to kill the -NAO and bring on the SER all winter and it hasn't happened, and a -EPO looks to be on the horizon to dump colder air into the CONUS. Before you think about arguing with meteorologist about weather ... think to yourself, "Am I really that smart and do I REALLY know what I am talking about?"
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Don’t matter what date calendar says... till we can get some colder air in the mix. Good luck threading needle . Sorry if this is rant mods. Think im trying be realistic
 
iGRXY said:
Ahhhh good to see the usual people on here bitching about no snow and winter is over before we've even hit January 15th. It makes me laugh seeing people hug the GFS and the GEFS the way they do. The GFS is garbage beyond 4 days at most. The GEFS has become a warm biased model in the medium and long range that tries to break a -NAO when you have a SSW that isn't going to allow it to happen. We have been supposedly getting the SER around here since before christmas and the last time I checked it hasn't paid rent once so it hasn't shown up at all. When you have the METEOROLOGISTS on here telling you to relax and things look good but you have the same whiny people wanting to try and argue with them it gets old quickly. They have told us multiple times that you are going to get run to run changes, the GFS is a garbage model in the long range, the GEFS has tried to kill the -NAO and bring on the SER all winter and it hasn't happened, and a -EPO looks to be on the horizon to dump colder air into the CONUS. Before you think about arguing with meteorologist about weather ... think to yourself, "Am I really that smart and do I REALLY know what I am talking about?"
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Things don't look as good as some would have you to believe.

P.S. Yes and yes.
 
KyloG said:
Really think the last week of January we finally see ensembles start showing BN 2m's. EPS showing many members with BN conus. Yeah it does feel like we are kicking the can down the road and with the prospect of mod/strong NINA Feb's going against us...

View attachment 65474View attachment 65475
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Seeing a lot of members with reds over the SE or south central US. But it's hard to tell from snapshots if that's transient. Hopefully, it's either wrong or transient. There are a few with blues and greens over the east and SE. I like 40, 42, 46, and 47, for example
 
IMO, it's absolutely fine to question people labeled as a meteorologist. Being rude and hateful is not a good idea. But discussing the pattern evolution from various points of view ought to be ok on a weather board. There's no reason to run out and declare that it's not going to get cold the last week in January. It very well may. There's also no reason to run out and declare that any idea counter to a cold end to the month is hot garbage, particularly when the models keep bouncing around and we have a background La Nina.

Let's please try and keep the conversation somewhat civil and not step in and dictate what people can and cannot discuss. And let's try not to admonish others for who they choose to discuss things with. If you feel there is something egregious taking place, please report it. If the admin/mods feel like there is a problem, it'll get addressed.

Let's please try and not get too bullish or too negative and keep this a fun place to meet and discuss something we all enjoy -- the weather.
 
Until we start seeing some stronger Canadian or Arctic highs coming in and depositing some significant cold and dry air, areas outside of the basic climo-favored regions of the southeastern US are likely to continue to struggle to see any significant wintry weather - not impossible but it is and will continue to be a difficult needle to thread. That in addition to below normal snow cover over the Ohio Valley and New England is and will continue to be the reason we in the south struggle with low level cold despite some favorable H5 patterns.

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IDK, but it got down to 24degF at my house this am, which is cold....I'll admit, I suck at long range forecasting. Too many moving parts, indices, etc. IMO, it's best to take anything beyond 6 days as 50/50 chance of occurance, at best in a blocky pattern. I DO think, we are ripe for a board wide winter event sometime in the next 2-3wks, but it's impossible to determine when, just yet.
 
iGRXY said:
I think I will take the words of the people who actually studied the profession and when they aren't worried, neither am I. Now if they come back and start flipping, then yes start to worry. But it's ridiculous for myself or anybody who isn't in the profession to argue with those who are in the profession and have stated multiple times that we are in a great pattern and that it takes time for models to figure it out. That has been stated on here continuously by a couple of the mets. I worked in finance and study company's financials and forecast their risk. It would be funny for someone not in my profession to argue with me about that topic because they read the WSJ and balance their home budget. We learn from these weather discussion boards and many like myself have loved weather for years and have watched models, teleconnections, and analogs to learn about it but none of us are nowhere near the level that Webber or any other met is on here no matter how much we look at these things and read these boards. If the mets change their tune about the pattern and potential, then yes worry about snow but right now they are telling you why things look good so listen to them instead of trying to out do them.
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This is a whamby post..tks
 
I personally think a lot of people are tripping right now. Same thing every year, we do live in the SE and it doesn't really snow that much (outside of the mtns) Yes...I know that people have a 2-5" AVG per year, but that has really not been the case in the past decade? Either way.....The pattern seems to be our BEST shot for the rest of this month. To be really honest, everyone can really thank the -NAO on this one (Webb has been leading the charge on this) as if it wasn't for it (other factors as well, yes) driving the pattern for us, we would probably be torching.

I think the pattern is setting up for a board wide hit at some point this month. Pressures are building up over Canada, in the medium term, and that will push southward. Hell, I am just thankful we have had some cool/cold weather so far this winter.
 
actually I am tired of having to moderate this ---- and delete/move posts. Going forward if people want to bicker and have realistically irrelevant pissing matches in this thread I'm going to ban you from all threads but the whamby thread and you can have a party there. Some of you have been banned a couple of times before so this should be NBD.
 
deltadog03 said:
I personally think a lot of people are tripping right now. Same thing every year, we do live in the SE and it doesn't really snow that much (outside of the mtns) Yes...I know that people have a 2-5" AVG per year, but that has really not been the case in the past decade? Either way.....The pattern seems to be our BEST shot for the rest of this month. To be really honest, everyone can really thank the -NAO on this one (Webb has been leading the charge on this) as if it wasn't for it (other factors as well, yes) driving the pattern for us, we would probably be torching.

I think the pattern is setting up for a board wide hit at some point this month. Pressures are building up over Canada, in the medium term, and that will push southward. Hell, I am just thankful we have had some cool/cold weather so far this winter.
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Very well said. Also I think a lot of folks need to remember that just because a good to great pattern sets up, it doesn’t automatically mean they’re going to get snow in there back yard. There have been countless times that great looking patterns didn’t produce, but we only remember the times it did. We live in the south after all, and no matter what pattern we’re in we always have to have good timing and a little luck on our side.
 
deltadog03 said:
I personally think a lot of people are tripping right now. Same thing every year, we do live in the SE and it doesn't really snow that much (outside of the mtns) Yes...I know that people have a 2-5" AVG per year, but that has really not been the case in the past decade? Either way.....The pattern seems to be our BEST shot for the rest of this month. To be really honest, everyone can really thank the -NAO on this one (Webb has been leading the charge on this) as if it wasn't for it (other factors as well, yes) driving the pattern for us, we would probably be torching.

I think the pattern is setting up for a board wide hit at some point this month. Pressures are building up over Canada, in the medium term, and that will push southward. Hell, I am just thankful we have had some cool/cold weather so far this winter.
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Is it fair to say long range model performance has degraded in the past year? I don't remember ever seeing so many different looks in the long range as we have seen lately. I guess the strong -NAO is foreign to the models since it's been a decade lol.
 
GaStorm said:
Is it fair to say long range model performance has degraded in the past year? I don't remember ever seeing so many different looks in the long range as we have seen lately. I guess the strong -NAO is foreign to the models since it's been a decade lol.
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Globals especially are really unreliable past day 4 or 5 and even the ensembles are showing known biases in the extended. When you have a SSW that helps continue a -NAO you're likely going to see massive shifts on models. Even the Euro will have energy flying everywhere at 500mb one run and show something completely different the next.
 
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