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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

What a disaster. I'm going to side with bamwx here and agree there is no real cold coming anytime soon. We may luck our way into a storm but it will be just luck in a marginal stale airmass. Been seeing the can kicked down the road since Dec with true Arctic air and its time to accept reality.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The pattern coming up is gonna have have huge run to run shifts, it’s that sort of pattern
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No doubt, just getting into that time of year we need to see some good trends soon. Still hopeful, I live in northern middle tn the middle and western parts of tn haven't got nada so far. East tn has done pretty good. Hopefully we can get a good timing of cold and moisture before it's too late. I don't think this is gonna be the year to hold out for late feb and march, certainly not for my area. The next 3-4 weeks are our window more than likely.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I’m not buying the cliff diving. Blocking is going to remain favorable as long as the strat warm is going on. The pacific is questionable, but the article should suppress a SER.
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Haha definitely not cliff diving im just messin lol, these volatile run to run changes are to be expected with this sort of pattern, but man we lost that first one on the UK 79120D42-B829-4B64-BFC0-4665B13EAD27.jpeg
 
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Very interesting thundershowers associated with the cold pocket aloft, getting up to 30kft which is pretty solid F012E801-8377-434F-9BCB-5A3EFA79B337.png63EBC02E-6370-46F0-B3DD-48585A76ACC9.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Don’t mean to bring bad vibes to the disco but damn. It’s wearing on me. Esp when up until now we’ve had some extremely favorable looks so far this winter @ 500mb. It’s one thing to not get snow when your pattern is ? but it’s another feeling entirely when you still can’t get snow even with a favorable pattern. Anyway, that’s where I’m at. Move to banter if you’d like idgaf
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Exactly what I have been saying. People don't want to admit it, but it really is harder to get snow here out of a supposedly good pattern than it used to be. That's why I am tried of all the talk about a good pattern that never actually shows up, or when we get one it still doesn't produce. It's just blind luck and whatever happens will happen.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Exactly what I have been saying. People don't want to admit it, but it really is harder to get snow here out of a supposedly good pattern than it used to be. That's why I am tried of all the talk about a good pattern that never actually shows up, or when we get one it still doesn't produce. It's just blind luck and whatever happens will happen.
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It’s always been about lucking out in a good pattern, there’s been several times where good patterns haven’t produced in the past, good patterns doesn’t guarantee a winter storm, it just increases the chance of getting lucky
 
Meh, at least we didn’t go to a raging warm sector with severe weather, that SE Canada vortex certainly keeps things interesting tho 727B16D4-CFB8-4394-B931-8E68562C90AB.png81FD8240-C401-4EB5-A008-1E4CA4BFE166.png2EE7BCA0-5035-4005-A111-18CD17CF443D.png
 
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