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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

If I am not mistaken, Doesn't the GEFS have a warm bias in the medium to lon grange? Which makes that southern slider event even more interesting.
 
Webberweather53 said:
If the majority of the I-20 corridor (outside of GA & SC) sees their 2nd accumulating snow in less than a week here, would be hard to argue that this isn't a great pattern or we don't have enough cold air to work w/ here as some have previously claimed. It's not that we don't have enough cold air to work w/, it is just not going to the right places at least for folks in GA & the Carolinas.
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Mellish mentioned in his blog and had mentioned previously that in this pattern you classically see increasing snows to the north and to the west before it gets here (NGA/SC/NC).


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Downeastnc said:
This is going to happen, maybe not these exact amounts or locations or timing but NC and probably a good hunk of SC and the upstates of MS/AL/GA are going to cash in on something similar to what the GFS has....sometime between Jan 15th and Feb 15th

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Yeah I think the signal of a winter storm between the 15-30th is strong. Models will struggle until 5 days out from a particular event.


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NorthGaWinter4 said:
Can we please not start a thread until it’s looking very clear?
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NoSnowATL said:
Like less then 24hrs away clear.
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We usually start a dedicated storm threat thread when it starts to dominate the main discussion thread. We will see if the trends continue to improve the next couple of runs and probably make a thread tomorrow morning if things are looking good. It's ok if it doesn't pan out. We don't control the weather. Sometimes it's fun to go back and look at these threats in the archives that don't actually produce. It can be a useful tool to have most of the relevant data and model runs in one thread.
 
Jessy89 said:
Yeah I think the signal of a winter storm between the 15-30th is strong. Models will struggle until 5 days out from a particular event.


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I think you’re right. There just seems to be so much energy flying around right now that it’s impossible for the models to zero in specific waves and what they could develop into. In fact I could see something pop up only 2 days or so out with this... something like the 1/20/2009 storm for central and eastern NC. There was no talk of any snow with that one until literally the day before it hit when I woke up to a Winter Storm Watch for the late night and following day.
 
packfan98 said:
We usually start a dedicated storm threat thread when it starts to dominate the main discussion thread. We will see if the trends continue to improve the next couple of runs and probably make a thread tomorrow morning if things are looking good. It's ok if it doesn't pan out. We don't control the weather. Sometimes it's fun to go back and look at these threats in the archives that don't actually produce. It can be a useful tool to have most of the relevant data and model runs in one thread.
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That’s very fair
 
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