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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

sdm47 said:
Do you have any thoughts as to why we keep seeing these blockbuster long range patterns beyond D10 slowly evaporate as they come closer? Other than my theory about model resolution and the persistent Greenland blocking somehow being overamplified and causing all these modeling errors, that's all I have.
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I've wondered this too. We see this just about every year. It's not always the case, but more often than not, when you see horrible long range patterns, you end up with decent verification. When you see favorable long range patterns, they get muted and turn less favorable as we work in. I know you were asking Webber, but this is a recurring thing and it sucks. Still, I'd rather see modeled good patterns than bad, because it's just more fun when fantasy storms show up...plus the meltdowns can be epic lol...
 
sdm47 said:
Do you have any thoughts as to why we keep seeing these blockbuster long range patterns beyond D10 slowly evaporate as they come closer? Other than my theory about model resolution and the persistent Greenland blocking somehow being overamplified and causing all these modeling errors, that's all I have.
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Partly it is because many forget the difference between model runs and ensemble mean. Just because it shows wall to wall cold from 240hrs to 384hrs does not mean wall to wall cold. The ensemble mean will spread a look over days until the ensembles start to agree which then it will look like the period evaporates. In reality weather patterns ebb and flow.

If you take the ensembles into account as many Op runs, you can get a better grasp on reality.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah for sure. Although, it seems like one of those winters where the chillier scenarios may be favored? Probably NAO related. I guess we'll see soon enough.



That's one of those things that JB always harped on...having a trough east of HI is a good thing for the east coast.



Yeah a +PNA in the right spot is good. Our -EPOs of late haven't done us a lot of good, but that doesn't mean they can't, if coupled with a well-placed western ridge. We've seen a lot of western troughs in winters of late. I like having a -NAO, and I'm glad we finally have a winter where it's showing up on the reg...or at least appears to be. But as I've said, we need a mechanism to inject some non-modified arctic air into the SE. Otherwise, outside of a very lucky intersection of events, congrats Texas and northern mid-south and midwest and mountains and northeast and Canada and Russia and Europe and Mexico and everywhere except most of us in the SE.
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I agree, I'm just making fun of the completely different pattern that model run represented. I'm also glad we finally have somewhat of a -NAO. I think one could argue however without a better 50/50 low signal the greenland ridging isn't doing us much good. It may be pushing some vorts south and pressing the SE ridge, but its not delivering us any cold air. So I think we may be missing a key ingredient here. Looking back at good -NAO winters, that seems to be the common denominator that stands out to me; ridging over greenland but large, strong negative anomalies in the 50/50 region and off the east coast. I'm at the point to where if all the -NAO is doing is keeping the SE ridge at bay and we don't snow, is that a win?

I know that the only other likely outcome in a Nina is all SE ridge so I guess this is the best we get this year.

At some point in March or April I'm sure we'll learn that somehow the SSW hurt us. Europe though is rockin!
 
Using temp data at GSO and looking for periods in DJF w/ -AO/-NAO/-PNA/-EPO/+WPO temperatures are pretty much all over the place. Basically 60-40 odds of above vs below normal temps with a mean and median within a degree of normal and standard deviation of ~9F. Out of respect for basic state climate changes, add a couple degrees to this and you pretty much have the overall look temp wise of what we're gonna encounter in this period.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's always been something there just hasn't had much of a reflection on model precip forecast fields
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These are my favorites, the ones the models miss or have too weak that trend into a solid event in the 3-5 days leading up to it....in a pattern like this with a active southern jet there are always those pieces of the puzzle that get missed in the 7+ day range....
 
Downeastnc said:
These are my favorites, the ones the models miss or have too weak that trend into a solid event in the 3-5 days leading up to it....in a pattern like this with a active southern jet there are always those pieces of the puzzle that get missed in the 7+ day range....
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Not my favorite. Had enough of this. Pass.icon_T2m_seus_19.png
 
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