It’s like you back it up and improve the tilt but the WAR follows. I hate it here. But similar to CMC improvements at first glance.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Das more better. Maybe if we keep backing it up we’ll give ourselves a shot to form a low riding the boundary as the trough pulls out
Dang.
Could work with this 
Love ridges love snow 
Clem282340
Member
Is that a good look
See, this is fine with me. I know it's a 384 operational, but I'm simply looking for signs that arctic air will be nearby and that it doesn’t just shoot in and out. As you can see, there's plenty of cold around our part of the world. And it is like that for much of the run.
The devil is always in the details, but as long as we have real, bona fide cold nearby, then we are in the game, and I feel good about that. I do not feel good about marginal situations and modified or stale polar air where we have to rely solely on dynamic cooling. That's much more of a low percentage way to get a big widespread SE winter, than to have arctic air incorporated into a storm.
With a cold air source available, now we will wait for shortwaves in an active pattern to make use of it. Hopefully, we'll see that play out soon.
The devil is always in the details, but as long as we have real, bona fide cold nearby, then we are in the game, and I feel good about that. I do not feel good about marginal situations and modified or stale polar air where we have to rely solely on dynamic cooling. That's much more of a low percentage way to get a big widespread SE winter, than to have arctic air incorporated into a storm.
With a cold air source available, now we will wait for shortwaves in an active pattern to make use of it. Hopefully, we'll see that play out soon.
whatalife
Moderator
Here is the 7 day 500 mb and 850 temps from the ensemble 00z runs.
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EPS doesn't look very good. Hopefully, the latter portions of the run evolves better.Here is the 7 day 500 mb and 850 temps from the ensemble 00z runs.
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whatalife
Moderator
No they do not. Which of these are you willing to bet is more right.?.I’d rather air on the side of the EPS and be pleasantly surprised if they are wrong.
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Once that subtropical trof kicks SE of Hawaii we should be good.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
-PNAs aren't going to have the same meaning when you have a gigantic block over the Baffin Bay, we aren't going to be warm and dry in a pattern like that. Just because you see a huge western trough over consecutive 5-day means on an ensemble also doesn't mean that pattern is gonna persist the entire time. It's more like transient western troughs that hand off towards the Lakes and slide underneath the block. We definitely run the risk of getting Miller Bs & ice storms w/ this look esp if the TPV drops towards the CONUS and we get a properly timed wave over the southern Rockies
SnowNiner
Member
Yep, that'll do it. All we need to do is drop the stupid -NAO, and go back to a +PNA and -EPO. Barneys then show up all over the southeast. LOL. What you're saying is we need to go back to 2014.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, that'll do it. All we need to do is drop the stupid -NAO, and go back to a +PNA and -EPO. Barneys then show up all over the southeast. LOL. What you're saying is we need to go back to 2014.
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View attachment 64951
View attachment 64952
If we drop the -NAO, the -PNA will rage and we'll torch.
No.
I was going to say. Sure let’s do that and punt the rest of winter. Hello last winter? Really the biggest thing I see different so far is the -NAO and it’s saving our ass
and that was directed at the post that you replied too. Lol
We have seen this song and dance before. All the hype only to come back to reality and golf weather first of February. Who knows maybe we get lucky but signs are there
tennessee storm
Member
So much wasted potential thus far this winter ... for one hope look on eps does change i still not seeing any true artic push coming down anytime soon
Do you have any thoughts as to why we keep seeing these blockbuster long range patterns beyond D10 slowly evaporate as they come closer? Other than my theory about model resolution and the persistent Greenland blocking somehow being overamplified and causing all these modeling errors, that's all I have.
Yeah for sure. Although, it seems like one of those winters where the chillier scenarios may be favored? Probably NAO related. I guess we'll see soon enough.
That's one of those things that JB always harped on...having a trough east of HI is a good thing for the east coast.
Yep, that'll do it. All we need to do is drop the stupid -NAO, and go back to a +PNA and -EPO. Barneys then show up all over the southeast. LOL. What you're saying is we need to go back to 2014.
?
View attachment 64951
View attachment 64952
Yeah a +PNA in the right spot is good. Our -EPOs of late haven't done us a lot of good, but that doesn't mean they can't, if coupled with a well-placed western ridge. We've seen a lot of western troughs in winters of late. I like having a -NAO, and I'm glad we finally have a winter where it's showing up on the reg...or at least appears to be. But as I've said, we need a mechanism to inject some non-modified arctic air into the SE. Otherwise, outside of a very lucky intersection of events, congrats Texas and northern mid-south and midwest and mountains and northeast and Canada and Russia and Europe and Mexico and everywhere except most of us in the SE.