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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

I may have to snow chase to Virginia this weekend!
 

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Notice how our confluence keeps trending stronger (from earlier interaction from the TPV) and our H5 shortwave keeps deamplfying, continues this and we may have a CAD setup in NC, this is clearly headed towards the ECMWF but the question is, does it back off ? 8F1A4261-8B9E-48ED-AB75-EE9A1CA80307.gif
 
Anafront!
 

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Myfrotho704_ said:
The GEFS heard BAM haha, but that gefs look is a classic nina blitz View attachment 67872View attachment 67873
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For the weekend system, we're running into a similar problem as we have with the upcoming system. We do not have a favorably located high. We start out a bit colder, which if correct, will force the models to show the Miller B/transfer farther south and will likely result in a burst of front end frozen for CAD areas.

But confluence is too far northeast and moving out and the parent high is too far north.

Best guess is front end frozen to rain, minimal impact.
 
Rain Cold said:
For the weekend system, we're running into a similar problem as we have with the upcoming system. We do not have a favorably located high. We start out a bit colder, which if correct, will force the models to show the Miller B/transfer farther south and will likely result in a burst of front end frozen for CAD areas.

But confluence is too far northeast and moving out and the parent high is too far north.

Best guess is front end frozen to rain, minimal impact.
Click to expand...
Your correct, but There’s definitely a difference as of now tho with the first system and this second one, much more drier low levels, and a better located HP, are issue is the parent shortwave moving way to far north imo, it’s a flood of WAA aloft, ECMWF verbatim could get the job done if our shortwave was further south8FCA6BE9-A600-401B-BF20-380094420A12.pngA30D252B-D29A-47D1-A2EE-DD6880802BE9.pngFE4D5A20-F98D-46B1-8BB5-657B05F62F5E.png6B2E3CBD-F60B-4488-9709-176BB21F5612.png204D40B4-E24A-4447-990D-761C5321BEB5.png
 
Rain Cold said:
For the weekend system, we're running into a similar problem as we have with the upcoming system. We do not have a favorably located high. We start out a bit colder, which if correct, will force the models to show the Miller B/transfer farther south and will likely result in a burst of front end frozen for CAD areas.

But confluence is too far northeast and moving out and the parent high is too far north.

Best guess is front end frozen to rain, minimal impact.
Click to expand...
The overall air mass is going to be colder to the north for the weekend event. That should make colder air available to be tapped into. Think you’re seeing that picked up on each run today as they have been south and colder each run.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
The overall air mass is going to be colder to the north for the weekend event. That should make colder air available to be tapped into. Think you’re seeing that picked up on each run today as they have been south and colder each run.
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It would help a whole lot if we could get our wave to trend south quite a bit more, otherwise were ramming a cutter into a wedge and the wedge ends up loosing, hopefully we can trend to a flatter and more suppressed system
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It would help a whole lot if we could get our wave to trend south quite a bit more, otherwise were ramming a cutter into a wedge and the wedge ends up loosing, hopefully we can trend to a flatter and more suppressed system
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I think we are seeing that evolve at least on today’s runs. Also, it’s historically been tough for a LP to plow a wedge. Which we are going to see tomorrow in most places, the wedge usually wins.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Your correct, but There’s definitely a difference as of now tho with the first system and this second one, much more drier low levels, and a better located HP, are issue is the parent shortwave moving way to far north imo, it’s a flood of WAA aloft, ECMWF verbatim could get the job done if our shortwave was further southView attachment 67881View attachment 67882View attachment 67885View attachment 67883View attachment 67884
Click to expand...
Agreed about the antecedent conditions for event number 2. But my guess is that we'll see a lot of WAA quickly and that high will be moving out. Also, a 1035 house way up in Canada, while more favorable than what we have coming up, is still pretty paltry. Probably some front end frozen, but it likely won't be a big deal.
 
SD said:
I'm going to have to look back so I'm not wrong but I feel like the few insitu events that have worked around here started with dews way way low like single digits to mid teens. What @Myfrotho704_ posted above doesn't really move the needle for me
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Some 10-15s help
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Some 10-15s help
Click to expand...
Yeah that's what I'd be looking for and if we can have the wave shearing and weakening as it approaches maybe we could get something. I honestly though can't remember right off the top of my head and real big insitu events here. Now as you get back into the classic wedge zones they can work well
 
SD said:
I'm going to have to look back so I'm not wrong but I feel like the few insitu events that have worked around here started with dews way way low like single digits to mid teens. What @Myfrotho704_ posted above doesn't really move the needle for me
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Yes, you are correct. You want really low dews and enough moisture to avoid a virga storm. Then, you'll potentially get a legit thump. It doesn't appear very cold and/or very dry air will be in place, unless we see some solid changes between now and then.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yes, you are correct. You want really low dews and enough moisture to avoid a virga storm. Then, you'll potentially get a legit thump. It doesn't appear very cold and/or very dry air will be in place, unless we see some solid changes between now and then.
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If the system were sliding by to the south I could see us getting by with that initial air mass. Sending anything to the west and that's that
 
It’s hard for me to look at this setup and see more than marginal front end icing. Are there examples of this kind of setup actually turning into a decent event? I will grant you DPs ahead of it are looking to be pretty cold as of now, but in situ CAD is always a self limiting process to some degree.
 
superjames1992 said:
It’s hard for me to look at this setup and see more than marginal front end icing. Are there examples of this kind of setup actually turning into a decent event? I will grant you DPs ahead of it are looking to be pretty cold as of now, but in situ CAD is always a self limiting process to some degree.
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I think there were a couple in 07 or 08 then again in maybe 12 or 13. I'll have to check
 
That delightful overrunning event will be gone at 0z but it’s nice to just get a bone thrown at you every now and again.


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