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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

I know its the GFS but that's 3 straight runs with a southern slider around the 20th.

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Hopefully the EPS is wrong here with the build up of the WAR and the SE ridge. That will really hurt us IMO in this time frame. GEFS on the other hand looks like a threat window. Which one is right? Hate to bet against the EPS.

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SnowNiner said:
Hopefully the EPS is wrong here with the build up of the WAR and the SE ridge. That will really hurt us IMO in this time frame. GEFS on the other hand looks like a threat window. Which one is right? Hate to bet against the EPS.

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As usual, the main difference is the pacific portrayal, with lower heights in the gulf of Alaska while the GEFS has a nice ridge. Both can be doable if the EPS can strengthen an Alaska ridge or at least drop the trough idea, right after this time frame. Days 10-13 is where I think we need to look to score.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Verbatim there is nothing wrong with either ensemble suite
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Well, I'd prefer GEFS pinching off the TPV a bit more, creating a stronger trough under the block and keeping the WAR away from us. Generally, starting around this point the EPS seems to want to start moving the trough west and we get in to ridging. I hope that's wrong.

And I agree, if we can fend off the ridging this is the start of our next window.

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SnowNiner said:
Well, I'd prefer GEFS pinching off the TPV a bit more, creating a stronger trough under the block and keeping the WAR away from us. Generally, starting around this point the EPS seems to want to start moving the trough west and we get in to ridging. I hope that's wrong.

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Again, there's really nothing wrong w/ either ensemble mean as they currently stand. A central US trough & WAR isn't an unfavorable look if you want overrunning, there's usually a SE ridge at 500mb in many if not a majority of those cases in some way, shape, or form (need deep layer WSW flow to make it happen). I wouldn't read into the details of a day 10 ensemble mean and am not concerned at the moment.
 
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