Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[sdm47]

@wow says precip is under modeled verbatim.
View attachment 62293

GFS probably struggling with convective feedback issues as the surface low approached the Gulf Stream, which may have interrupted the moisture transport back towards RDU and points north and east this run. Heavier rates might have meant the snow line extending southeastward one additional row of counties, all other things being equal.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

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Finding stretchy pants to put on.

 

[JLL1973]

Well here’s your 400 mile north shift on this piece of garbage model

 

[NCSNOW]

Snowing pretty good tonight Northern mtns. Just started, appetizerfor Jimmys arrival

 

[Webberweather53]

Still tons of warm advection and very strong deep-layer veering in these soundings from RDU-GSO. RDU-CLT rain-snow line is likely at best very generous given what the GFS is showing verbatim

 

[TheBatman]

2nd system going to be a cutter. Goes from suppression to cutter. Lol Thanks gfs. Us in the western areas just can't win. Lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

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That thin triangle of light grey/white is directly over my house. Fml

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meh

 

[Webberweather53]

Still tons of warm advection and very strong deep-layer veering in these soundings from RDU-GSO. RDU-CLT rain-snow line is likely at best very generous given what the GFS is showing verbatim


View attachment 62294

By the time WAA finally goes away, we're getting some diurnal heating plus the precip is tapering off and sfc temps are warming close to the upper 30s.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Play by play incoming: “The ensembles don’t really support the OP.”

 

[mrdaddyman]

Is this far enough south @Webberweather53?
View attachment 62292

This should be far enough South for your area but I still think folks SE of RDU are out on this one.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

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Wow. Metro ATL in play on that map. The trends are...interesting.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Things have definitely trended in the right direction today. 5 days out and it's looking good at this moment.

 

[JLL1973]

2nd system going to be a cutter. Goes from suppression to cutter. Lol Thanks gfs. Us in the western areas just can't win. LolView attachment 62298

Yep looking bad . Icon cut as well

 

[TheBatman]

Yep looking bad . Icon cut as well

Meh, not worried about 2 garbage models this far out making a 400-500 mile shift of the low in one run. Euro has our back..

 

[NCSNOW]

Play by play incoming: “The ensembles don’t really support the OP.”

The ukmet does.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I started the thread with the purpose of keeping the pattern discussion one from becoming more cluttered.

Wintry - January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Since we cluttering up the main thread, with permission from the mods, and the start of the 00z models, I’ve decided to start a thread for our system that’s currently sitting five days out. We shall see how things trend even if this setup isn’t the best... Here’s some nice eye candy from the...

southernwx.com

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC is going to be a pretty clown map for WNC when it’s done

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Wow. Metro ATL in play on that map. The trends are...interesting.

What model is that

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Not bad