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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Coastal going in the wrong direction, if its gonna happen it needs to jump on the NW trend wagon today imho. It's just too suppressed and fast flow

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Well not so fast......just need more cold and a bigger precip shield.....the low track is fine, heck another 50-75 miles east would be even better :)
 
Coastal going in the wrong direction, if its gonna happen it needs to jump on the NW trend wagon today imho. It's just too suppressed and fast flow

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Yup, something would need to change fast for that coastal. But, the time is already cut short for anything to adjust significantly. I think it's safe to say, no winter storm next week, it's just not going to work out. We're definitely going to get the cold though, much back to winter standards.

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Icon is so close
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Some good news about AAM per Maxar: Whereas it has been negative just about all month to date after having gone slightly positive around the holidays, both the GEFS and the EPS are forecastimg it to go positive soon and staying that way through the end of the month at least. As a matter of fact, they have it going to the +1.6 to +1.7 area, which would be a pretty strong +AAM and by far the strongest/longest +AAM in many months. It is more significant that GEFS has this as unlike EPS it hasn’t been +AAM biased.

What does this mean? +AAM correlates to a more El Ninoish pattern, which favors the coldest anomalies in the US to be in the southern tier for a change. This doesn’t mean we should expect relentless cold by any means. We’d probably need a -AO/-NAO as well as more supportive MJO for that. But it does give a lot of hope we’ll have a near normal 1/20-Feb overall instead of the crap we’ve had.
 
Some good news about AAM per Maxar: Whereas it has been negative just about all month to date after having gone slightly negative around the holidays, both the GEFS and the EPS are forecastimg it to go positive soon and staying that way through the end of the month at least. As a matter of fact, they have it going to the +1.6 to +1.7 area, which would be a pretty strong +AAM and by far the strongest/longest +AAM in many months. It is more significant that GEFS has this as unlike EPS it hasn’t been +AAM biased.

What does this mean? +AAM correlates to a more El Ninoish pattern, which favors the coldest anomalies in the US to be in the southern tier for a change. This doesn’t mean we should expect relentless cold by any means. We’d probably need a -AO/-NAO as well as more supportive MJO for that. But it does give a lot of hope we’ll have a near normal 1/20-Feb overall instead of the crap we’ve had.
The GEFS and EPS anomaly maps show just what you're talking about. I think they were posted earlier. They images are deceptive, in that you look at them and think COLD. But it's probably more reflective of a cool, active pattern. I'd feel pretty good about a couple of big winter storms, if the PV doesn't stay across the pond while this pattern sets up.
 
That kicker out west is just brutal.
I just hope we temper our expectations and realize our d10-15 and beyond threats are probably aren’t going to amount to anything. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see a complete flip in the next 24-48 hours for not only the worse, but the much worse
 
Just to pile on the look for the day 12-13...it does look good and has trended nicely on the EPS.

View attachment 31149

That looks really good to me with the 50/50 low setting up. TO RC's point, I wonder where the tPV is located late in the EPS. Is that a piece closing off SW of greenland? That should work if we could keep it there, right?
 
Yep. I'm so tired of watching that system just spin in the middle of the country for days. That's why there's a flood of warmth for a few days. I'm a little confused because I've seen mention of such a fast flow. Why does this thing take a week to move across the country? I'm guessing because it's an ULL cutoff from the fast flow?
 
That looks really good to me with the 50/50 low setting up. TO RC's point, I wonder where the tPV is located late in the EPS. Is that a piece closing off SW of greenland? That should work if we could keep it there, right?

The tPV is a real problem and it will be tough to get deep cold far enough south. Why we see winter cancel going up everywhere. We have 6-7 weeks to go in a winter and nobody knows how the tPV is going to behave in early/mid February.

But, what the models are advertising looks cold "enough" to give some folks on this board a chance.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500-0083200.png
 
Probably going to be another big fantasy storm towards the end of this run. Big 50-50 low gets established after that monster of a storm on d9. You can see a 1041 dropping down out of Canada behind it. Let’s seeD633918D-A064-4D31-9279-94CB94DD0830.png
 
It looks like the 12z GFS is going to have the winter storm again for the last week. Nice energy out to the west, moisture devloping over Mexico into the southwest start at hr 246.
 
The tPV is a real problem and it will be tough to get deep cold far enough south. Why we see winter cancel going up everywhere. We have 6-7 weeks to go in a winter and nobody knows how the tPV is going to behave in early/mid February.

But, what the models are advertising looks cold "enough" to give some folks on this board a chance.

View attachment 31154

Thanks, yeah I was hoping it was more on it's way toward our side. Bummer.
 
Too chaotic. Three separate waves in close proximity. Looks like the one that turns dominant is heading SSE again (boy is that familiar) and the one that may have been producing recently gets absorbed/strung out.
 
Oof! Not a lot going our way at the surface on this run but look at that table setter!DBB87450-0B9D-41EE-A288-A8DF221264FB.png
 
It's really astonishing how we appear to go from one bad, stable pattern to another. Big Pacific ridge of death to a big, Arctic polar vortex of death. It looks like our string of negative EPO winters is set to come to an end, while our string of positive AO/NAO winters will continue on indefinitely. It is almost impossible to believe that it is impossible to have one winter month anymore with a -AO/NAO combo. I mean, even if we incorporate the stuff which shall not be named in this thread, the law of averages/sheer luck would argue for a once in a blue moon type of deal. Wow.
 
It's really astonishing how we appear to go from one bad, stable pattern to another. Big Pacific ridge of death to a big, Arctic polar vortex of death. It looks like our string of negative EPO winters is set to come to an end, while our string of positive AO/NAO winters will continue on indefinitely. It is almost impossible to believe that it is impossible to have one winter month anymore with a -AO/NAO combo. I mean, even if we incorporate the stuff which shall not be named in this thread, the law of averages/sheer luck would argue for a once in a blue moon type of deal. Wow.

Yeah, you can see alot of the cold bottled up over the pole with such a compact tPV. But, a victory to me is I don't have to turn on my AC in this type pattern, that's about what I am hoping for over the next few weeks.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_7day-0558400.png

GEFS says enough cold air comes down to give a chance.

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You can see with the weak PNA ridge we will get some cold air funneled down.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_barbs-0364000.png
 
Yeah, you can see alot of the cold bottled up over the pole with such a compact tPV. But, a victory to me is I don't have to turn on my AC in this type pattern, that's about what I am hoping for over the next few weeks.

View attachment 31166

GEFS says enough cold air comes down to give a chance.

View attachment 31165



You can see with the weak PNA ridge we will get some cold air funneled down.

View attachment 31167
I with you, but my confidence of those ensemble images verifying as chilly as they look is pretty low. I mean, it's all we got, so we have to run with it. But I think we've clearly shown that those longer range ensemble progs that look cold, show very little continuity with their shorter timescale counterparts.
 
I with you, but my confidence of those ensemble images verifying as chilly as they look is pretty low. I mean, it's all we got, so we have to run with it. But I think we've clearly shown that those longer range ensemble progs that look cold, show very little continuity with their shorter timescale counterparts.

Agreed, I don't have much confidence in any solidly BN temps until the tPV unwinds. Like I said, I'm just tired of running the AC, seasonal temps for the next few weeks will be a win.
 
It's really astonishing how we appear to go from one bad, stable pattern to another. Big Pacific ridge of death to a big, Arctic polar vortex of death. It looks like our string of negative EPO winters is set to come to an end, while our string of positive AO/NAO winters will continue on indefinitely. It is almost impossible to believe that it is impossible to have one winter month anymore with a -AO/NAO combo. I mean, even if we incorporate the stuff which shall not be named in this thread, the law of averages/sheer luck would argue for a once in a blue moon type of deal. Wow.
This is a bit of a stretch I’d say
 
Predictions and thoughts for the possibility of a winter storm occurrence sometime during the last week.

I have general idea's "laid out" as to what could occur during the last week. Keep in mind, predictions aren't going to be exact this early in advance. There has been a trend of high latitude blocking so far this winter as well as an active STJ. These two trends are inputted into the prediction. There's a good chance that there could be high latitude blocking in the PNA and NAO regions (over a large area in Canada) during the last week. Of course, high latitude blocking blocks westerly winds, thus forcing the northern stream to dip southward. I do not think the deep cold air would be lacking come late week.

Sub-Tropical Jet

I do believe that the sub-tropical jet would become active again come late next week and into the last week and possibly into February. We could see numerous of weather system's tracking along the southern branch. So, we could see southern sliders to Miller-A storm system's.

I think storm system's would be tracking from the far east central Pacific ocean, into the Southwestern US and eventually tracking down into the Gulf. The reason why I think so is because it's possible that there would be blocking north of Hawaii, and due to a northern stream press downstream, this would be forcing storm system's to track south. This is a very good pattern for southern winter storm development if you ask me. We're going to be getting the cold press, storm system's tracking to the south, blocking in Canada...this is great!

500h_anom.na.png

The map I made is for illustration purposes only. I know it's not one of my best made maps. It's just a rough draft if you will. So, I think most storm system's would be coming in on where I drew the storm track. But, it's also possible we could see some storm system's tracking further south along the sub-tropical jet.


WinterStormSetup.jpg
 
I still like it
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It looks pretty. What's not to like? But is it real or just fantasy? This model's record has been plain bad, mainly due to being too cold. Here are the cold 2 meter anomalies to go along with that:

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