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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
BufordWX
Member
00z GEFS Showing support for the small event for the January 4th-5th time period 
And a few have a event for the January 6th-8th time period. Less support then the 18z run though.
And a few have a event for the January 6th-8th time period. Less support then the 18z run though.Ladies and germs, it looks like the 0Z Euro will be coming in colder early in the 6-10. Let's see.
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@deltadog03 and others, it did and now the 2nd airmass looks to also come in colder than the 12Z Euro.
edit:
@deltadog03 and others, it did and now the 2nd airmass looks to also come in colder than the 12Z Euro.
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The Euro through the end of its run
John1122
Member
Euro pops a +PNA and fires some deep cold our way.
Wasn’t the first half of January suppose to be a torch ??? ? okay I’m sorry I had to say it
Be careful what you say as you may curse it and cause the wx gods to give us a torch as punishment.
All the negative talking the past end of year has cursed us into being in this mess in the first place let’s hope we’re just correcting now ??
Can we get a report on the eps it looks good on paper with regards to the tropical tidbits maps I’m seeing
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We've been progressively losing the -PNA that was initially forecast this week on the EPS, however the -PNA during Jan 10-15 is stronger the last few cycles and the ridge placement in the NP is very reminiscent of Feb 2019.
In the meantime, we'll have a window of opportunity to score late in the first week of January & in the early part of the 2nd week.
In the meantime, we'll have a window of opportunity to score late in the first week of January & in the early part of the 2nd week.
Before you see the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to actually be in the tunnel. The tunnel isn't even on the radar yet, according to the maps below. Going to be game over for most of January, if this comes to pass.
And it only gets worse from here.
Welcome back to our typical winter pattern. Maybe somebody can pick me up, but I'm not seeing much of a reason to expect much for most of the month now. Originally, I thought we'd start to shift better after week 2, but it looks like that estimate may be way too soon.
And it only gets worse from here.
Welcome back to our typical winter pattern. Maybe somebody can pick me up, but I'm not seeing much of a reason to expect much for most of the month now. Originally, I thought we'd start to shift better after week 2, but it looks like that estimate may be way too soon.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
It always consoles me to see that it is 10-15 day outlook on GFS? Considering the lack of consistency on it and all the models post 7 days, I think I would wait a few days to get too upset.
NoSnowATL
Member
Checked the MJO and looks to still be in 5 by mid month. Some have it going in the circle and others have in low amp into 6. We might have a cold snap but that will bring temps back to normal just for a few days. I don’t see anything for January. If the MJO can keep progressing towards 7,8 then February has a chance. I just hope it does just keep looping in 4,5 and 6.
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It's the GEFS so maybe it's wrong? But while the eps is slightly better @240, after that it goes in the tank through the end of the run, warning it's not pretty
NoSnowATL
Member
There's a storm signal on the eps around D10 before things go off the cliff the rest of the month...
Storm5
Member
Agreed. Transient cold shots sure , a winter pattern we are looking for ? No. However , that does not mean we can’t luck up and score . I thought we would be rolling into a better pattern by mid month . Not looking too good at the moment
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Unless I'm missing it I don't see individual eps panels on weathermodels sit... @KyloG @Ollie Williams anyone have individual panels? Thanks
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I wonder how skewed this member made that...
That being said, lots more EPS members have snow for parts of the SE, mostly N GA, TN, and NC, but there's a few that give some to SC, AL, MS, and as shown there Florida and LA.
whatalife
Moderator
Aww yes good 'ol @whatalife (sorry forgot lol) but thanks.
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And I see a few systems but also one monster that kind of skews the mean, shoot if e13 happens it can torch the rest of winter for all I care Lol
Storm5
Member
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Better than nothing I guess . It’s like getting blown out in football but you’re able to kick a FG late in the game to make it 48-3
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Yeah, I agree...if anyone were upset, I'd give the same advice. It's a little silly to get upset about weather, when there are much more important things in life. That said, there is a considerable amount of evidence that is suggesting a quite mild period, that has some durability, coming up. It's not just long range GEFS maps. There is quite a bit of broad support for it. If you use the 80/20 rule, there is a chance that all/most of the guidance is wrong, but I'd wager that's in the 20% camp, and not the 80%.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If the CFSv2’s tropical forcing forecasts are generally correct the next few weeks, this convectively coupled kelvin wave will enter the Indian Ocean this week and should return to the west-central Pacific around Jan 20th or so. I think this is somewhat reasonable given the fading IOD and background state we’re currently in which favors faster propagation thru the eastern hemisphere, even vs last month. If we are on this general path going forward, this warm up will probably extend from Jan 10-25, with renewed opportunities for cold returning thereafter and going into early February.
However, I don’t understand all the whining here this morning because we definitely have a legitimate window to see a winter storm ~ Jan 6-9 & some should be grateful we have a chance to begin with.
However, I don’t understand all the whining here this morning because we definitely have a legitimate window to see a winter storm ~ Jan 6-9 & some should be grateful we have a chance to begin with.
We're really good at phases 4-6 in the heart of winter.
Who is whining? Let me know and the staff can address it.
I think there is very good consensus that around the 10th on things look warm, but time to focus on the possible threat just before that happens.... let's real one in
whatalife
Moderator
If the past several Februarys are any indication of what’s to come this winter....Better figure out a way to score in the D10 range.
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I'd feel a whole lot better about the chances if there were a high pressure up north somewhere (just looking at the Euro). Not ruling out the possibility by any means. It's not a wide window, but sometimes, when you only have a crack to work with, you have to take what you can get. Still, I feel a little better about this one than the one that didn't pan out in December. I'd probably rate this opportunity at about a 4.5 out of 10.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There’s a collective feeling of agony/whining here because the pattern sucks after day 10. It sucks, but we have to play with the cards we’re being dealt. Hopefully we pick up storm in early January during our peak climo for cold so people ctfo.
I went back and read all of the posts from your 3:40ish AM post forward. I disagree with the term "whining". It doesn't seem like anyone is being too overly pessimistic or dramatic. Probably disappointment is more accurate. I will confess that I'm disappointed that we are likely going to blow a good portion of the heart of winter. Feels all too familiar. I know that's how it goes, though, and we can't change it. Personally, I'm still optimistic for February.
I honestly did not expect to see this from the CFS. Figured with a that big + anomaly out in the Pacific, we'd see more of a SER response. Wonder if it's due to an active STJ? It certainly isn't due to blocking, which is severely lacking. I'm showing the 18z image from yesterday. Not sure why it's always delayed so much on TT. Hopefully, the more recent ones carry a similar look and can hold through tomorrow. Feb is even a bit better.
I think the active STJ is going to help as winter progresses.
I think the active STJ is going to help as winter progresses.
Using 240+ maps from the terrible Gefs is the exact reason why this post is ridiculous ... we have a legit threat to watch in the medium range at around January 5-7 ... Let’s focus on that instead of using 240+ hour maps from the GEFS which we all know is garbanzo ... plus we see how the +PNA showed up all the sudden in the medium range once it got inside 240 hours and all models switched to that giving us our potential storm to track January 5-7
It actually isn’t that bad when you look at individual members, just much like it has been with a very transient pattern. Gonna be some really warm days and probably gonna be a threat or two, much like what we are seeing this week into next week. Timing will rule the game.
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I respectfully disagree with a storm to track. I haven't seen one op run with a storm. And 2 or 3 decent hits out of 20 on the GEFS and less that 10 of 52 on the EPS is a very faint signal at the moment. As far as the pattern nothing has changed. A 2-3 day cold blast is not a pattern change.
It's not ridiculous to discuss the long range. We do it all the time. Post the EPS map, if you want, and let's see if there's a contradiction. If you want to focus on the upcoming threat, knock yourself out. I felt like posting about the LR, so I did. And I also acknowledged that it's not 100% guaranteed.
Nerman
Member
I'll take the moisture from the GFS and the cold from the Euro for the 5th - 10th threats. Someone is going to see some flakes flying even if it's just the mountains. And maybe it's something entirely bigger. I like where we are at right now without the OP's showing the storms. We're still too far out...they'd just disappear anyway. I want to see the storms show up inside 5 days.
If you’ve tracked storms in past years you would know the threats 5-7 days out are very sneaky and although you don’t see operational support you look for ways a storm could possibly form both the Gfs and euro have the pieces on the table for something to happen January 5-7.. those type of threats can sneak up on us as we usually see our winter storms show up within the 5 day mark that’s why I think it’s at least a decent potential to watch ... yes a 2-3 day cold blast isn’t a pattern change I completely agree all I’m saying is that no model had been correct in the pattern in the long range and there is a lot of minute things that can change like ridging placement out west and end up giving us a much colder pattern