Nomanslandva
Member
06Z GFS looked more like a coastal but still had a little low in eastern KY screwing things up. I was not real impressed with the EPS for the weekend system this run either.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Fountainguy97
Member
This was posted over on Tenn forum on American.
This is the UK for the minor mid week system in a couple days
This is the UK for the minor mid week system in a couple days
So it looks like the UKMET is much colder. I'm not sure how it does with temps, I've always used it just for storm tracks and ideas. Interesting. Is that radar simulation possibly virga, though?
baroowoofr
Member
Here's my full post from over there, some ensemble members and the NAM see it too, to an extent:
Midweek UKMET:
Euro not too far off:
but a little too warm
It's in NAM range now too:
Some EPS ensemble support for north of 40 and elevations on teh plateau and NE TN/ SW VA:
6z GEFS:
A Met over in the SE (Americanwx) was saying earlier in the week not to sleep on this one, since the only thing keeping from being at least a little snow storm (2-4 type deal, my guess not the Met's) was that the vort was not holding together on models at range.
Local news weather is not mentioning it at all and that is an important, but often overlooked component for us, (well at last for my superstitions, lol) Gotta have it something like this be a little sneaky, to maintain tradition.
Midweek UKMET:
Euro not too far off:
but a little too warm
It's in NAM range now too:
Some EPS ensemble support for north of 40 and elevations on teh plateau and NE TN/ SW VA:
6z GEFS:
A Met over in the SE (Americanwx) was saying earlier in the week not to sleep on this one, since the only thing keeping from being at least a little snow storm (2-4 type deal, my guess not the Met's) was that the vort was not holding together on models at range.
Local news weather is not mentioning it at all and that is an important, but often overlooked component for us, (well at last for my superstitions, lol) Gotta have it something like this be a little sneaky, to maintain tradition.
baroowoofr
Member
The UKMET precip amounts spit out a general .20 - .25 of qpf over the TN Valley. But it is at the absolute high end of all guidance right now.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I doubt it’s virga as dark as those hues over WNC are.
This is an interesting one especially for Tn and WNC peeps. Euro always a degree or 2 too warm and honestly we've seen these pieces of energy hold together a little longer than forecast, wouldn't take much for nice little event. 12z should give some better idea, maybeHere's my full post from over there, some ensemble members and the NAM see it too, to an extent:
Midweek UKMET:
Euro not too far off:
but a little too warm
It's in NAM range now too:
Some EPS ensemble support for north of 40 and elevations on teh plateau and NE TN/ SW VA:
6z GEFS:
A Met over in the SE (Americanwx) was saying earlier in the week not to sleep on this one, since the only thing keeping from being at least a little snow storm (2-4 type deal, my guess not the Met's) was that the vort was not holding together on models at range.
Local news weather is not mentioning it at all and that is an important, but often overlooked component for us, (well at last for my superstitions, lol) Gotta have it something like this be a little sneaky, to maintain tradition.
It wouldn't completely shock me if someone out our way managed a snowflake out of this one.
I would be shocked if I saw accumulating snow this week. I don’t think a lot of precip survives over the MTN and what does may skip East a little in the form of cold rain.
Yeah the 0z euro soundings weren't terrible. If we wetbulbed we would only have 950 to the surface above freezing that might be just enough. Weird having BL issues instead of a warm nose
Gfs is making these types of jumps inside 100 hours, soundings from CLT north was so close if you wet bulb, just 925s are so borderline 
I like how it now puts some of that northern branch energy in the southern energy to consolidate it. You would think if we can just get it strong enough to precipitate heavy enough to cool the BL we could see some flakes
Sounding isn't bad and very similar to the euro with below 950 being the bugaboo if we fully wetbulbed. With the weak ne flow if we got into steady precip we might get lucky
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Yea looks more like cold rain given low rates and spotty moisture. The jumping is not resulting in snow it’s lack of cold air and heavy wall to wall moisture.