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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

deltadog03 said:
Different look again from the good doc, much closer to a nice storm. Still not there yet tho.
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You almost need to see several consecutive runs showing the desired outcome. Then maybe it trends away and comes back as the models oscillate around the mean. We are getting run after run of close but no cigar which tells me...head to the mountains.


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If we had a cold source for the storm on the 18z this place would be jumping .
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Looks like a repeat of 2011-2012 when most of the southeast never got any winter weather. Not even a single snowflake or sleet pellet. Only 1 real threat that winter and that mostly was in Virginia.
 
SimeonNC said:
Does this setup support expansive areas of mixed precip like we usually see or is this a more of a rain/snow only set up

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can’t say much bout that yet, but I’d lean to rain/ip/snow (most likely confined to the mountains atm) but me saying this is a bit wreckless rn, can’t really say that until it’s in the shorter term
 
On a nationally weighted HDD basis, the full run of today's 12Z EPS is ~16 HDD colder than the 0Z yesterday. Yesterday's 12Z was about 9 HDD colder than yesterday's 0Z. Then today's 0Z came in about 6 HDD warmer than yesterday's 12Z. Finally, today's 12Z came in a nice 13 HDD colder than the prior run. Part of this is that for a change, the 1-5 day has actually been coming in a little colder.
 
I really don't know what to think. Weak stuff on the coast to the near perfect ICON run. I guess we are getting exactly what we should expect, even if it is not what we want in some runs. At least, there is a decent signal for something other than a cutter in about a week. Some runs are warm and some are colder but the devil is in the details. I just like that there is a miller A look for a change. Cutters suck every time. This still has a chance.
 
After this storm next weekend I am hoping we get a good legitimate 5 day or so shot of fresh arctic air. If that storm can pull down some of that air around Alaska it may give us our best opportunity of the winter so far, which is not saying much.
 
I don’t post here much but this is total banter. (Referring to JHS quote) Some of you living off every single model run. Look at the positives. Cold air is on this side and plenty of time for it to seep south. Also believing any model past 7-8 days is senseless. Thank you to those that help us learn with useful input. Also to those that keep optimistic no matter what the models show.
 
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