-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
LP placement so similar between gfs icon and euro. Appears a cutter is off the table
Good run. Maintains the general 12z consensus. Major high elevation potential.
That low shot due north out of the gulf into GA and still managed to put down good frozen totals in WNC
There is some initial mixing in the piedmont of NC and even SC and GA ... just a few more degrees lower and this is a big time deal .. don’t see why this can’t trend in our direction as it’s already been doing
Different look again from the good doc, much closer to a nice storm. Still not there yet tho.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
This has west of 77, north of 85 written all over it. Credit to ICON leading the way.
I’m seeing major atmospheric and surface temperature issues outside of climo favored areas. Even with an ideal track. Not looking good imo. But this is why we model watch
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Buyer beware, the lack of sufficiently cold antecedent conditions is what will ultimately ruin this party, in my opinion.
Ilovesnow28
Member
You would think with that track we should be getting something brewing in the southeast
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Unless we end up with a well-timed phase--but that is so hard to pull off around here.
Downeastnc
Member
Yep if it had good cold air andwasa little slower this would be a big deal for NC....still I think we get several winter weather events between now and the first week of Mar.....I would not be surprised to see most of NC at 100% of their yearly average by the time its all said and done....
This was close to being a solid almost state wide hit.....
Our possible storm is working with stale artic air, it’s close but BL issues is likely, this looks like your classic nino storm with a tight gradient in the piedmont of WNC, rates could help but even just a tiny bit of WAA could spoil this, we need a well timed phase like many has mentioned, good luck with that, haha 
SimeonNC
Member
Does this setup support expansive areas of mixed precip like we usually see or is this a more of a rain/snow only set up
Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
... euro at the end of the run looks like it’s heading for some ANA front glory ... my chips are in .. looks like all modeling is trying to do some type of Ana front mess later around the 240 time period
Euro Control FWIW.
It’s trying ... let’s give it some time to cook in the model oven
The models have agreement on the general track of low (late next week system/early Feb) I hope it trends colder, but I'm starting to have doubts. I'm still expecting changes on the models though over the next 2-3 days since the time frame is still beyond 5 days.
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
ATLwxfan
Member