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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

GeorgiaGirl said:
yep, the GFS would have supported snow there if it were to come out like what I saw from the ICON with heavy precip getting over there. 850s are there and it wouldn't take a lot.
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Yeah. With a track like that, climo would win for many areas. Especially those with elevation. We just don’t want that Low to tug inland with already marginal 850’s. Verbatim, I would take my chances with this one
 
The potential is there for a HECS event but need to see some favorable trends SOON. Below is the CMC, it would not take much of a location error to thump NC with wind and 6-12”+. DFE9E712-3212-4DE9-AB72-60D114EA752A.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
The potential is there for a HECS event but need to see some favorable trends SOON. Below is the CMC, it would not take much of a location error to thump NC with wind and 6-12”+. View attachment 32023
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The CMC focuses on a different, earlier storm, same one it had winter weather in NC at 0Z last night. It pushes the GFS storm east and OTS
 
Clem282340 said:
Could the upstate get in on the action as well
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Yes. Signal is there for a strong storm to rule anyone out. This isn’t the typical light event pattern...the STJ has been and continues to show signs of producing strong storms for the s/e.
 
The reality is a few tweaks can get us a solid mountain or upper south event. Us I-20 folks need an alignment of the stars and a consistent signal. As it stands right now we’ve got little to hang out hats on through the first quarter of February. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.


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ATLwxfan said:
The reality is a few tweaks can get us a solid mountain or upper south event. Us I-20 folks need an alignment of the stars and a consistent signal. As it stands right now we’ve got little to hang out hats on through the first quarter of February. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.


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I20 will have to wait and hope like all hell we can score in Feb . Thank god the TN and NC mountains are far away . Traveling might be our best bet this year


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Storm5 said:
I20 will have to wait and hope like all hell we can score in Feb . Thank god the TN and NC mountains are far away . Traveling might be our best bet this year


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I think outside of the mountains the rest of us, as far as January is concerned, might as well go ahead, and snap the ball, take a knee, and head to the locker room, and hope February has Mahomes as QB.
 
Euro 12z yesterday vs 12z today ... same time .. sneaky little system .. looks like a similar position as the Gfs .. have to watch trends but this one probably skirts south
 

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NoSnowATL said:
I love the faith but it’s hard to see anything promising for the I-20 folks. We need to see some block and cold air in place. The MJO looks bad LR and the PV isn’t helping.


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We had to wait forever on 2015 watching TN get rocked for two weeks but it paid off IMBY and I think that was the last few days of February.
 
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