ICON hammers WNC next weekend..great track
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
GFS is much improved this run. The energy is there. I’m not sure it’s going to get bundled and cranking enough for a bis SE storm. At 159 it’s close.
packfan98
Moderator
Through 168 the 850’s are a little warm it seems. Mountains look to score.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Remarkable how close the LP placement is on the GFS and icon. Almost lock step.
I would wager against the ICON. Temps too warm I doubt we go from 40s rain to 33 snow. Poss but any unfavorable track trend would even be cold rain in Boone NC.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Precip never gets back to the mountains.
packfan98
Moderator
Maybe a Norfolk special this run based on what I’m seeing. Most of the mid-Atlantic misses out. Probably will hit the northeast.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Icon struggles mightily with surface temps. Usually way too warm.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Should be some woof woofs on the ensembles.
Still looks like a cold rain to me. Other guidance is fairly warm too. Setup doesn’t look favorable for snow.
ICON is definitely warm biased with surface temperatures ... we just need things to cool down a BIT and a big snowstorm for many .. I think we definitely have some good wiggle room for this to happen
GFS basically whiffed on high elevations in WNC that actually supported snow that run
Need the GFS to trend 10 degrees cooler within 150hrs. Icon or not, the setup is there for a cold rain event too for the majority East of the mtns.
Wasn’t it the ICON that first sniffed out the snow last April?
Need more NB energy and cold but that was an improvement.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
yep, the GFS would have supported snow there if it were to come out like what I saw from the ICON with heavy precip getting over there. 850s are there and it wouldn't take a lot.
Nerman
Member
Not sure I'm buying what the GFS is selling here...
cmc trended less moisture and East. Not a big event for western NC this run.but cold was there