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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

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packfan98 said:
gfs_asnow_seus_65.png
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I can’t find evidence of the pattern on the means supporting this system. The GFS Op looks like it gets a decent -NAO and a somewhat decent ridge on the west coast, and the 50/50 is there 1 day before the system which is also a positive...but the means don’t reflect this. Even with all that said, the Feb 7 period seems to have more legs for the SE to me.


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Jon said:
I can’t find evidence of the pattern on the means supporting this system. The GFS Op looks like it gets a decent -NAO and a somewhat decent ridge on the west coast, and the 50/50 is there 1 day before the system which is also a positive...but the means don’t reflect this. Even with all that said, the Feb 7 period seems to have more legs for the SE to me.


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Euro op looks similar 78 hours later. Maybe we get a transient -NAO at some point. But we are talking about la la land, so who knows. I have found the LR ensembles to be utterly useless this year. Once we get any potential inside D8, I think everything will be more useful.

Right now, about all we really know for sure is that the flow is really fast and energetic for as far as we can reliably see. Until that changes, it's going to be very hard to get any meaningful intrusions of cold air into the deep south.

As long as this pattern is in place, we will need a lucky bombing storm that sets up a 50/50 and we need to pray that another system comes in on its heels. Maybe we get a pattern change later in the month. But that's just wishful thinking right now.
 
Rain Cold said:
Euro op looks similar 78 hours later. Maybe we get a transient -NAO at some point. But we are talking about la la land, so who knows. I have found the LR ensembles to be utterly useless this year. Once we get any potential inside D8, I think everything will be more useful.

Right now, about all we really know for sure is that the flow is really fast and energetic for as far as we can reliably see. Until that changes, it's going to be very hard to get any meaningful intrusions of cold air into the deep south.

As long as this pattern is in place, we will need a lucky bombing storm that sets up a 50/50 and we need to pray that another system comes in on its heels. Maybe we get a pattern change later in the month. But that's just wishful thinking right now.
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Agree 100%.

The chaotic nature of the flow will likely blow the boards up, but it’s just fools gold. We’ve seen better looks that gave us similar big storms but they were never supported on the ensembles.

Assuming the ensembles are right it may be mid Feb before we get something.

I really hope the -EPO shows up this year, I think that’s what gets us out and opens the door to cold intrusion. We may have to deal with suppressed systems but we could crank one out.

ff7dfcf7c55a4c808741f2078ddebff3.gif


5d699cc610f99645d22c6f9d276b0fba.jpg


SSWE or not, it seems like we are gunning for a shake up in Feb. I just want something to get rid of the +EPO and go from there.


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Jon said:
Agree 100%.

The chaotic nature of the flow will likely blow the boards up, but it’s just fools gold. We’ve seen better looks that gave us similar big storms but they were never supported on the ensembles.

Assuming the ensembles are right it may be mid Feb before we get something.

I really hope the -EPO shows up this year, I think that’s what gets us out and opens the door to cold intrusion. We may have to deal with suppressed systems but we could crank one out.

ff7dfcf7c55a4c808741f2078ddebff3.gif


5d699cc610f99645d22c6f9d276b0fba.jpg


SSWE or not, it seems like we are gunning for a shake up in Feb. I just want something to get rid of the +EPO and go from there.


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Yep, agree. And I think I said it backwards above lol. The Euro looks like the GFS 78 hours later...Euro240 ~= GFS318 with a little bit of -NAO and a 50/50ish type feature, with another system behind haha.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_54.png

I am actually pretty amazed that we have had absolutely no help wrt a -EPO this year. I thought it was almost a lock that we would see that feature for a while at least.
 
KyloG said:
I'm not a strat hugger by any means but a stout t-PV over the pole ain't good. Nice to see th Euro going for a split.

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The GFS actually splits the vortex in the extended FWIW. It hasn't been really keen on the idea (or a displacement) up until now.
bb4d9fcd0de7d78ed58b9ad5d60de2f5.jpg


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