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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Poimen said:
Meanwhile, day 10 CMC not nearly as enthused with SE cold...at least it seems to me...as the GFS.
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I'm glad you said something first. We are 100% at the mercy of what happens across the Pacific and along the west coast as we get into the first of Feb. The gfs run was the holy grail of it going right and we probably haven't seen the worst modeled yet but you could easily drop a trough into the SW and fire up another SE ridge. Should be some wild model runs coming in the next few days. I would urge everyone to be cautious here and watch the Pacific we might have another round of model cycles like a few weeks ago where things start to look good and the wheels rapidly fall off. I personally think we end up with a western trough SE ridge but I want to believe
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Look at that ridge on the move up into alaska. CMC was about to drop the cold mother loadView attachment 31921
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Ehhhh be careful here that's going into the SW first and the SE ridge would respond but you are probably getting enough aleutian low and ridge into AK that it may be a short term deal
 
SD said:
Ehhhh be careful here that's going into the SW first and the SE ridge would respond
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Extrapolating of course..if we can get that big ridge to dislodge the cold over Alaska it could be a big conus trough. Also looked like the CMC was about to pump heights around Greenland towards the end as well..even still, I’m extrapolating the CMC
 
This is the thing, AK ridge/-EPO can bring us the goods, but it can couple with a -PNA if it goes the wrong way/ridge becomes suppressed and allow the growth of the SER, this is especially common during the PH5/PH6 of the MJO, at least with the pattern we have now (+EPO) you don’t gotta worry about a SE ridge, even if there was a transient trough in the SW
 
Gefs really hates the strat pv and wants to start warming/disruption around D5 and ends with this. It certainly wouldn't hurt our chances to interfere with the overall polar structure
 

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Not sure what it means if anything but interesting seeing the northern atlantic into europe/scandi. AN and from Siberia to AK to Eastern US BN.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-1228000.png
 
RollTide18 said:
There were just examples posted with SE Winter Storms with a GL Low.

Anyway, the Southern Slider looks like a classic deep south winter storm but until it gets under 150 then it's just Alexa Bliss (eye candy).
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Yeah I was being facetious. Hopefully the depicted pattern happens. I think we would all appreciate that
 
SD said:
Gefs really hates the strat pv and wants to start warming/disruption around D5 and ends with this. It certainly wouldn't hurt our chances to interfere with the overall polar structure
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It's definitely good to see it being pushed off the pole. Yeah, it's the GEFS in fantasy land but still nice to see.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z50_anom-1249600.png
 
The GFS wasn’t far off from a nice flizzard for Central MS, AL, GA on the 1st & 2nd.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_35.png

gfs_T2m_seus_36.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Run of the year
View attachment 31920
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To piggy back off of this and what @Myfrotho704_ was saying. That big phasing system to begin February would set all of this up. No high pressure to be found yet GFS spits out 3 straight winter storms for the SE. We’re rooting for a big phase to start the month

Here’s a visual
7B470835-8447-4150-BA9A-57AF4493E9DF.gif
 
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