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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

very similar to last night's EURO--just farther west. But check out those deep blues embedded within the greens and yellows. Fun to look at.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png
 
Rain Cold said:
They do and they don't. I recent years, that feature has in no way aided in southern snow the bulk of the time. It can, under some circumstances, not be a hindrance, but you're going to have to work really really hard to convince me that it helps more than it hurts. About 90% of that feature shows up, a widespread winter storm here happens not. Maybe in a different pattern where there's blocking or something, it may not hurt us. But you can just look at the temp map above and see the effect of its presence.
Click to expand...

As Shane said, the reason for the warm temps is the streams are seperate, so in effect you are getting WSW flow aloft with no northern stream influence so of course it will be too warm. The other reason the temps rise on the chart posted last night was daytime heating. Most if the time when you have a weak low pressure over the lakes it is due to a PV lobe sitting over the area which does not kill cold air advection for us in the south.

Examples include 12/8/17 which had a weak low pressure over the lakes. 02/25/15 had a system over MO.
 
It's not even an Apps runner. It's a TN/OH Valley cutter. I guess we'll just have to watch and see if there are any eastward adjustments going forward.
 
WxWatch said:
12z GFS was actually close to a phase. I'm excited to see what the 12z Euro will show today. If a phase does really happen, this is going to be one monster storm.View attachment 31917
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It did actually phase.

Just in a way that would make the southern stream part of it end up heading straight north and outside of that crazy deform band in parts of Tennessee and upslope/backside snows, it might...be severe weather that's more interesting in the southeast on this.

There's ways to adjust this to make it interesting for I-85 west or at least the mountains (even outside the upslope), but for east of I-85, a lot of help would be needed (and I'm not expecting it, just saying there).

2nd edit: Maybe with this being a phasing situation, the problem with heights being too low won't be as big of an issue. Maybe it's about figuring out where the needle will be threaded.
 
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