• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
some people claim they don’t hinder a snowstorm setup, but I beg to differ. As do many others
Click to expand...
They do and they don't. I recent years, that feature has in no way aided in southern snow the bulk of the time. It can, under some circumstances, not be a hindrance, but you're going to have to work really really hard to convince me that it helps more than it hurts. About 90% of that feature shows up, a widespread winter storm here happens not. Maybe in a different pattern where there's blocking or something, it may not hurt us. But you can just look at the temp map above and see the effect of its presence.
 
Rain Cold said:
They do and they don't. I recent years, that feature has in no way aided in southern snow the bulk of the time. It can, under some circumstances, not be a hindrance, but you're going to have to work really really hard to convince me that it helps more than it hurts. About 90% of that feature shows up, a widespread winter storm here happens not. Maybe in a different pattern where there's blocking or something, it may not hurt us. But you can just look at the temp map above and see the effect of its presence.
Click to expand...

No phase, split flow, you are going to see something like that there. Is this really thought to be some type of semi permanent thing?
 

Attachments

  • gfs_z500_vort_us_fh174_trend.gif
    gfs_z500_vort_us_fh174_trend.gif
    800.1 KB · Views: 41
SD said:
No phase, split flow, you are going to see something like that there. Is this really thought to be some type of semi permanent thing?
Click to expand...
I'm not following ya. Sorry man. It's early, I'm off work, and I haven't had coffee yet!

Edit: You saying it's there because there wasn't a phase?
 
  • Like
Reactions: SD
Rain Cold said:
I'm not following ya. Sorry man. It's early, I'm off work, and I haven't had coffee yet!

Edit: You saying it's there because there wasn't a phase?
Click to expand...
I think he is saying that when we do have a phase the GLL has no effect so it is not a permanent or semi permanent thing, depends on other factors
 
MichaelJ said:
I think he is saying that when we do have a phase the GLL has no effect so it is not a permanent or semi permanent thing, depends on other factors
Click to expand...
Oh ok, gotcha. Yeah, when that energy phases in, I get that scenario. And yeah, I didn't mean to indicate it's a permanent feature. But if it's there when the southern stream wave moves by, assuming no phase, with marginal temps, it is going to do more harm than good most of the time.
 
Rain Cold said:
Oh ok, gotcha. Yeah, when that energy phases in, I get that scenario. And yeah, I didn't mean to indicate it's a permanent feature. But if it's there when the southern stream wave moves by, assuming no phase, with marginal temps, it is going to do more harm than good most of the time.
Click to expand...

What you both said. The 0z GFS kept the stream separate and fed nothing into the southern stream like the 18/6z's did, sorry that lakes low thing is just one of those things that grinds my gears.
 
SD said:
I'm surprised the severe threat isn't getting a little more conversation this morning. Pretty stout high shear low cape with winds backing across the Carolinas.
Click to expand...
Yeah that is true I suppose we can’t make a separate thread but could be a pretty nasty line later today
 
Sub 530 thickness across alot of NC as this pup is getting ready to spin up the goods. Ashame it doesnt go out futher. Ever notice the ICON will paint rain as the precipo type all the way to the 520 thickness line, sometimes lower. Thats why its R/S line is always way out of whack (much futher N) than other globals. Thanks for making me look SD! Look at that NS energy coming into the back side of the SS

1579881762514.png
 
One thing is certain, we are about the get very active, with one southern stream wave after another. Maybe we can get lucky, but it's going to require a perfectly-timed phase, I'm afraid. I don't like the chances of that.
 
GFS starting to look like last nights CMC, it’s just 925s are to warm, still has time to be something but the ensembles look the same, with warm BL issues, such a shame AB17C751-F059-47BC-BD85-80E901C2A76A.png6A418A36-1D60-438E-9465-8FE4814B0F08.gif
 
And yes, that trend shows how bad the GFS is, that’s absurd and terrible for being inside hour 150, absolutely ridiculous
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top