• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

I think our best chance is prob the one for late next week. The early to mid next week looks ok, but I think the better shot is the one after.
 
Serious question: other than it looks like a less than torchy pattern, is there anything to really be excited about going forward? I mean, I don’t see any signs of being able to really tap into the arctic in the next 7-10 days and I don’t trust anything beyond that time frame.
 
Ensembles are very barren for this far South. Of course the extended Euro ensemble charts show more promise, but they have all season only to change to rain as they get into a shorter range.

I feel better for TN across through NC & VA versus the deep South (right now.)
 
Poimen said:
Serious question: other than it looks like a less than torchy pattern, is there anything to really be excited about going forward? I mean, I don’t see any signs of being able to really tap into the arctic in the next 7-10 days and I don’t trust anything beyond that time frame.
Click to expand...

I think winter is over for everyone south of Tennessee and North Carolina. Just my opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Poimen said:
Serious question: other than it looks like a less than torchy pattern, is there anything to really be excited about going forward? I mean, I don’t see any signs of being able to really tap into the arctic in the next 7-10 days and I don’t trust anything beyond that time frame.
Click to expand...
No, not really. The storm track isn't favorable. There is no strong high pressure. Outside of a storm taking a perfect track and bombing out, I don't see how we will see a bona fide winter storm. I guess we can try to shoehorn in the above scenario, but the odds are very poor, the way it looks now.

We're still at least 10 days away from potentially seeing somewhat of a better pattern. But as you indicated, there's not much reason to put a lot of stock in hoping for something at that range to work out.
 
I have yet to see the ensembles scream for a threat in this area this Winter. There were a couple GEFS runs that had many members, but usually the Euro would shut that idea down quick.

Regardless of the GFS upgrades, Euro for the most part, is still king. It gets a bad wrap when it busts some major forecasts up North.. but I truly believe it's the most consistent model available to the world and we have to respect it, and ask ourselves : "how can the other modeling be wrong?" instead of "when will the Euro bite?"

Euro has and will generally handle 500mb better. That's where it matters. I've heard on the old GFS they have taken the Euro's initialization data and fed it to the GFS and it would spit out more accurate forecasts than the Euro. I don't know what we need to change, but initial variables and data may be a good start instead of all this "WE HAVE TO CATCH UP WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION OUTPUT"... maybe lets ingest better data first.
 
Rain Cold said:
No, not really. The storm track isn't favorable. There is no strong high pressure. Outside of a storm taking a perfect track and bombing out, I don't see how we will see a bona fide winter storm. I guess we can try to shoehorn in the above scenario, but the odds are very poor, the way it looks now.

We're still at least 10 days away from potentially seeing somewhat of a better pattern. But as you indicated, there's not much reason to put a lot of stock in hoping for something at that range to work out.
Click to expand...

Yeah as much as I wish it were different, it ain’t. If past is prologue then it’s cold chasing moisture or moisture coming in as cold retreats. I think maybe a legitimate chance for upper south and upper CAD regions but nothing really points to an I-20 threat or even an I-85 threat for north GA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
To be more specific, they are waiting for the 12z suit models to come in.33003EB6-2A2B-4B60-8B97-00BAB53CEF5F.jpeg
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top