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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

GaWx said:
As you and most here know, we've been badly fooled numerous times this winter. So, whereas I'm always hopeful for a true cold dominated pattern finally getting here (and do expect that to actually start ~late Feb) and a cold looking EPS always excites the heck out of me, I'm not betting on it earlier than late Feb regardless of what the models are showing due to their horrible performance when it looks favorable for cold, especially until the indices overall get better. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me over and over, ...........

Hopefully, we won't need to wait til late Feb. Any earlier would be a huge bonus to me since I've not been expecting it. The MJO staying within or near the COD (a quick low amp 5) instead of going for another long, high amp 4/5 could only help imo.

With the current +AAM, maybe it will be different this time, especially if it lasts?
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The EPS never bought into the EPO going negative and we are currently in the modeled BN pattern...it wasn’t that bad. Yeah, pattern collapsed and the GEFS was really bad at tanking the EPO.
 
KyloG said:
The EPS never bought into the EPO going negative and we are currently in the modeled BN pattern...it wasn’t that bad. Yeah, pattern collapsed and the GEFS was really bad at tanking the EPO.
Click to expand...

Indeed, the EPS never bought into the -EPO. And I don't think it has been bad as the GEFS overall. But don't forget that the EPS has had enormous swings from cold to much warmer in just one run. Example: Here's last Thursday's (1/16) 0Z EPS, which had solidly BN over virtually the entire US in the 11-15 (see images below) and which looked cold at the end:

0Z 1/16 6-10: cool SE, AN much of N US
1579739415922.png

0Z 1/16 11-15: cold SE and much of US
1579739262839.png


The very next run, 12Z on 1/16, had a whopping 24 fewer HDDs! From another BB per a met there:

"Yeah, that 12z EE was incredibly warmer. 24 less HDD's which is a ton for an ensemble in just 1 run."

12Z 1/16 6-10: N SE and A to MA much of N US
1579739540414.png


12Z 1/16 11-15: N SE and much of US
1579739327633.png

Then the next two EPS runs, the ones on 1/17, each continued the sharp warming to the point that the 12Z 1/17 run had an astounding 50+ fewer HDD than the 1/16 0Z run!!

12Z 1/17 6-10: A to MA much of US including SE
1579739867055.png

12Z 1/17 11-15: SE is a little AN; N to AN most of US other than SW
1579740012628.png


And the latest EPS (12Z on 1/22), despite some modest cool changes and a better look, is still AN much of the US in the 6-15 as it warmed a good bit further over the long weekend:

12Z 1/22 6-10: A to MA most of US

1579740353296.png

12Z 1/22 11-15: AN most of US
1579740660216.png


So, I'm advising extreme caution in buying into a colder pattern based on how the EPS looks in week 2. Perhaps it will be different this time?? Who the heck knows?

Note that the 1st 6 maps are 850 anomalies whereas the last 2 are 2 meter. That's because I have old 850s saved but not old 2 meter. I would have preferred to display only 2 meter maps if I could. But the general point is still clear.
 

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GaWx said:
Indeed, the EPS never bought into the -EPO. And I don't think it has been bad as the GEFS overall. But don't forget that the EPS has had enormous swings from cold to much warmer in just one run. Example: Here's last Thursday's (1/16) 0Z EPS, which had solidly BN over virtually the entire US in the 11-15 (see images below) and which looked cold at the end:

0Z 1/16 6-10: cool SE, AN much of N US
View attachment 31762

0Z 1/16 11-15: cold SE and much of US
View attachment 31760


The very next run, 12Z on 1/16, had a whopping 24 fewer HDDs! From another BB per a met there:

"Yeah, that 12z EE was incredibly warmer. 24 less HDD's which is a ton for an ensemble in just 1 run."

12Z 1/16 6-10: N SE and A to MA much of N US
View attachment 31763


12Z 1/16 11-15: N SE and much of US
View attachment 31761

Then the next two EPS runs, the ones on 1/17, each continued the sharp warming to the point that the 12Z 1/17 run had an astounding 50+ fewer HDD than the 1/16 0Z run!!

12Z 1/17 6-10: A to MA much of US including SE
View attachment 31764

12Z 1/17 11-15: SE is a little AN; N to AN most of US other than SW
View attachment 31765


And the latest EPS (12Z on 1/22), despite some modest cool changes and a better look, is still AN much of the US in the 6-15 as it warmed a good bit further over the long weekend:

12Z 1/22 6-10: A to MA most of US

View attachment 31767

12Z 1/22 11-15: AN most of US
View attachment 31768


So, I'm advising extreme caution in buying into a colder pattern based on how the EPS looks in week 2. Perhaps it will be different this time?? Who the heck knows?

Note that the 1st 6 maps are 850 anomalies whereas the last 2 are 2 meter. That's because I have old 850s saved but not old 2 meter. I would have preferred to display only 2 meter maps if I could. But the general point is still clear.
Click to expand...
Fabulous stuff!
Thanks, Larry!
Learn something and scratch the head simultaneously ... that's what this is all about ... well, that and folks who take the time to think and share ... so, really, thanks Larry! :)
 
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I actually think this could* be our best shot. Yes, there won't be super cold air around, but we will have plenty of energy flying around and if we can actually time it right, EURO and GFS not far off, could be our best shot overall so far this lackluster winter.
 
deltadog03 said:
I actually think this could* be our best shot. Yes, there won't be super cold air around, but we will have plenty of energy flying around and if we can actually time it right, EURO and GFS not far off, could be our best shot overall so far this lackluster winter.
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I’m all in because I don’t think I’ll have another chance to be all in.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
One of those weird cases where a +EPO/big Alaskan vortex is pumping our possible +PNA
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I was thinking the same thing. It’s really interesting how many possibilities exist in an ever changing system where there really is no cause & effect, it’s as if time is really just an illusion and each moment coexist with one another, as if there is a connection there. This is definitely an interesting period coming. Although not perfect which is completely fine, I’m just curious to see what the atmosphere decides to dish out these next few weeks.
 
Ollie Williams said:
No problem. At least we still have more of the run to go, to see if the FV3 will bite.
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I believe this is that system now and the low placement is much better than the 18z run. However temps are an issue this run being in the mid 40’s
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh156_trend.gif
 
Ethan80963 said:
I believe this is that system now and the low placement is much better than the 18z run
View attachment 31775
Click to expand...
I’m not thinking that wave itself is going to work out, but the one behind it also has my attention. There are so many waves, that I can’t pinpoint which one I need to pay attention to.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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