Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

995 east of HSE.... driving rain storm

Very close for WNC.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Temps during the storm on the Euro
View attachment 31726

Definitely too warm, but I checked the soundings and if these were somewhat cooler we would have a big storm with a phase. It's good to see some agreement this far out between the GFS and Euro.

 

[SD]

Euro is way too warm verbatim on this run. Rain all the way through the mid-atlantic regions.

If only it were the middle of winter. In all seriousness though give me the low and the track, I'll sweat temps in about 8 days

 

[Arcc]

I’m interested in seeing the control, the OP isn’t far from another storm after day ten.

 

[Webberweather53]

The ECMWF is a hot mess at 500mb, at least 3-4 shortwaves yet to be resolved within the streamflow. Better phasing with the northern stream entities would produce a stronger surface low, colder surface temps, and more widespread snow (& vis versa). I definitely wouldn't be too worried about surface temps 9 days out given the complexity of this kind of setup

 

[GaWx]

It isn't just the storm. Look at the +PNA!

 

[KyloG]

The GFS had a phased/negatively tilted trough and the euro remained progressive and seperate with several pieces of energy. Upper level temps were plenty cold on the Euro.

 

[KyloG]

Not unprecedented. 87 wasn't a cold winter but enough cold with the storm itself to produce snow. This happened a couple of times that winter.



Day before the event.

 

[Jon]

It isn't just the storm. Look at the +PNA!

View attachment 31727

Speaking of, look how poorly the models have been with the PNA region at a 10 day lead. Good god. Euro in third place during this period, not something I’ve seen before. Yuge fail by the euro here.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[crecre9]

Not a big winter weather storm threat, but I guess it could trend to one of those storms with some initial slop before changeover if it can drag enough moisture north.

I disagree, I think it is indeed a winter storm threat for some areas.

 

[NCSNOW]

QUE THE CHOIR! Theres no HP to the north.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Ehh not sure why anyone would get too bogged down by verbatim temps on the Euro thus far out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GaWx]

Nothing bad about this 12z EPS 360 map at all! Has gotten a lot colder over the last 2 runs.

 

[Stormdoc]

I disagree, I think it is indeed a winter storm threat for some areas.

Note I said “big”, of course this winter seeing a few graupel pellets would be big?

 

[deltadog03]

Verbatim, wasn't a whole lot of moisture w/ it on this run because there's a lot of synoptic-scale sinking on that backside of the cold front behind the low over Maine but it's definitely closer to something.

View attachment 31719

I think that first one is going to be more difficult to get something going, but lays the ground work for the bigger one after.

 

[Parker]

Seems to be some noise on the EPS. 10 members showing some snow for my area between 2/1-2/5

 

[deltadog03]

EURO looks like it will have something on the "caboose" shortwave at the end.

 

[deltadog03]

Well I will say this, it appears the players are on the field and we might a good window of opportunity.

 

[Downeastnc]

Not unprecedented. 87 wasn't a cold winter but enough cold with the storm itself to produce snow. This happened a couple of times that winter.

View attachment 31732View attachment 31733

Day before the event.

View attachment 31731
View attachment 31734

That storm was nuts, if I recall correctly we had quite a bit of ice with that one here, full grown pines bent over to the ground with a solid 1" of sleet on top....

 

[Avalanche]

That storm was nuts, if I recall correctly we had quite a bit of ice with that one here, full grown pines bent over to the ground with a solid 1" of sleet on top....

Yes, we all did. I remember it as a major ice maker. Couldnt get traction walking on anything.