Yeah gfs has trended to more NS phasing, which was once embedded in the Canadian ridge, nice western ridge, you gotta love/hate the Canadian ridge, helps shoves things/acts as blocking but it’s not really good for CAA 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Honestly I saw this earlier when looking at the models and was surprised it wasn’t showing more in the way of snow outside of the mountains. That looks like a really good storm track
To be inside 200hr, this is still a mess..I’ll be surprised if the CMC and Euro spit out something similar 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The subtropical jet really juices up the day 9 storm on the GFS w/ a clear link from the central Pacific. The warm, moist conveyor belt for any storm that attempts to get going at the end of January into early February will be quite potent.
Some GEFS members a bit more north
That look at the end of the GFS ? ..several good looks actually..LR GFS I know yadda yadda..we might be able to work with this..until it changes again in 6 hours
I was taking a look at the Gulf SSTs and there is a warm blob of 26°C (about 80°F) which would induce convection/higher QPF? (Help me word that better?) with Gulf lows. I'm not sure if SSTs are above normal in the Gulf. (Still searching for SSTs maps for the Gulf.) @Webberweather53
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Last edited:
something funky may be brewing to start feb..the CMC had high pressure building in..really weird how it handled a wave entering British Columbia which in turn shoved that western ridge eastward and turned it horizontal..idk
whatalife
Moderator
Well...Let’s see what the doc has to say...
CMC doesn’t have much moisture with it. Mainly throwing this out here because of the 850 temps...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CMC doesn’t have much moisture with it. Mainly throwing this out here because of the 850 temps...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If we can phase in that other NS s/w it may be enough.
Everything was too positive tilt but looked like it had plenty of time to go negative..extrapolating a crappy model of courseWell...Let’s see what the doc has to say...
CMC doesn’t have much moisture with it. Mainly throwing this out here because of the 850 temps...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pretty drastic changes in 12 hrs on the GEFS for the storm early next week.
I’m calling it. The pattern we are in has been griped at and whined about. Watch it nail the SE with three straight winter storms.
as others have said, GFS was very close to a heavy wet snow for many across the SE. Here locally, you will notice once things get going a pocket of sub freezing temps at 850mb develops. The melting layer isn't awful, wouldn't take much more to fully support heavy wet snow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A stronger surface low w/ more QPF & stronger cold advection would be able to take care of that.
yes sir I agree! I would think the EURO should have a storm, maybe not shown like this, but a bit further north from last nights run?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, the 12z GEFS 5-day averaged 850mb temperature anomalies were below normal the entire run in the SE US. Obviously, they're going to be a bit cooler than the 2-meter temps anomaly wise but still, it's far from the torch most were fearing.
You would have fun with that. Very nice UVVs in the DGZ.
Agreed. That H850 layer cools very quickly with the heavier precip. Nice look this far out.
