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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Unfortunately, if the EURO is right, the MJO looks to be headed to phase 5 and at a fairly high amplitude over the next 20-30 days. It basically meanders around 5 until late February which could be the death knell for most in the SE wanting snow. Not saying it will end up being right but I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach about it. We would need a miracle of timing and track to get lucky IMO if this occurs.

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Nick_boynton_ said:
Can someone either agree or disagree that we should now be looking at the Canadian model and it’s ensembles with a more higher regard .. even vs Gfs now? In other words is the Canadian more trust worthy now in what it shows
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This is some additional text that was in the Link I posted yesterday:

THIS UPGRADE REAFFIRMS OUR STRONG FOUNDATION OF HIGH-PERFORMANCE
COMPUTING, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SERIES OF TECHNOLOGY
TRANSFERS FROM RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS OPERATIONS. SUCH
UPGRADES ARE THUS ESSENTIAL IN ORDER TO PROVIDE CONTINUALLY IMPROVED
WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SERVICES TO CANADIANS,
GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, AND OTHER USERS AND PARTNERS.

So it looks like the computing system upgrade they just did is going to allow them to actually start upgrading the model output itself in the near future.
 
MichaelJ said:
Unfortunately, if the EURO is right, the MJO looks to be headed to phase 5 and at a fairly high amplitude over the next 20-30 days. It basically meanders around 5 until late February which could be the death knell for most in the SE wanting snow. Not saying it will end up being right but I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach about it. We would need a miracle of timing and track to get lucky IMO if this occurs.

View attachment 31674
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You said the key words, “until late February”. My best guess per analogs and an anticipated better MJO is that late Feb will be the time to start watching for the best shot this winter at a sustained (say 2-3 weeks) period of BN starting to dominate. So, patience will be needed for that.

In the meantime, although we will still imo likely average somewhat AN in early to mid Feb, I don’t think it will be outright torchy like most of Dec and early to mid Jan have been. We should have a lot of pleasant seasonable and even a few BN days mixed in even before late Feb. In other words, more normal winter wx overall. And of course these last few days have been quite cold!

Per the last few runs of the GFS and assuming they have somewhat of a clue, we won’t have any more muggy summerlike days anytime soon. Note that 850s look to stay below +10 vs having been in the torchy teens much of recent weeks. In contrast, we’ve now got the benefit of Ninoish +AAM though I need to get updated AAM forecasts.
 
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MichaelJ said:
Unfortunately, if the EURO is right, the MJO looks to be headed to phase 5 and at a fairly high amplitude over the next 20-30 days. It basically meanders around 5 until late February which could be the death knell for most in the SE wanting snow. Not saying it will end up being right but I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach about it. We would need a miracle of timing and track to get lucky IMO if this occurs.

View attachment 31674
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That's not a high amp phase 5. When it's near or within the circle, the MJO fluctuation doesn't have much of an influence. There are other major key factors within the pattern and not just the MJO, so results can vary. I do think the month of February will be better in terms of below normal temperatures and winter storm development verses this month.

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WxWatch said:
That's not a high amp phase 5. When it's near or within the circle, the MJO fluctuation doesn't have much of an influence. There are other major key factors within the pattern and not just the MJO, so results can vary. I do think the month of February will be better in terms of below normal temperatures and winter storm development verses this month.

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It's not a high amplitude phase 5 look because uncertainty and spread increase faster w/ range than actual signal. However, that doesn't necessarily mean a strong MJO event can't emerge in phase 5-6 again in February.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's not a high amplitude phase 5 look because uncertainty and spread increase faster w/ range than actual signal. However, that doesn't necessarily mean a strong MJO event can't emerge in phase 5-6 again in February.
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This basically means that MJO amplitude is artificially damped/weak (vs reality) (in most cases) at longer leads and most of this is attributable to spread within an ensemble suite (&/or biases) rather than something physical.
 
Looks like the GFS is finally starting to get the hint that it'll actually rain in Florida early next week. I definitely recall on the old GFS that if the low was suppressed down to Cuba around day 5, that was usually ?in the bank for a winter storm around here. Who knows, maybe one of these storms will actually continue trending NW inside day 3-4 instead of stalling out just far enough offshore.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh126_trend (1).gif
 
So, I see the GFS has brought back the storm it was showing a week ago. Now it's showing it coming in a little later. The GIF I added was from the 18z run on Wednesday, Jan 15th. We have 10 days to real this one in!
Edit: What I'm saying is, I think this is how it's going to pan out from what it was showing a week ago.
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