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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Grain of salt and the usual but temps are in the low 40s when this is rolling through, if it could trend colder, who knows?

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Cad Wedge NC said:
That 500mb pattern does not match the surface temps in the least...... something is off here.
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There is WSW 500 mb flow and SW lower level flow ahead of an oncoming upper trough/cold front producing warmth in the E 1/3 of the US. Look at the surface isobars closely. Also, in NC, 850's are +4 to +6, which are ~3 C warmer than normal. Around RDU for example, the daily means late in this run are ~50 vs Feb 5th normals of 43.

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RollTide18 said:
Grain of salt and the usual but temps are in the low 40s when this is rolling through, if it could trend colder, who knows?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_38.png
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If we can muddy the pattern up enough we might be able to get lucky. We have to have these occluding systems over the lakes/ne to supply these marginal air masses and to temporarily suppress the flow. If we catch a decently timed wave on the back end you might have something. I wouldn't bet the farm but its something to watch for
 
Update NCSNOW Greensboro last 42 days of winter forecast.

Off to a great start. As of midnight tonight GSO will be -3.5BN with 38 days to go. Really like our chances to get on the scoreboard as we head into the 2cnd week of February, Feb 6th time frame. Week 3 and 4 in Feb look very promising, but ill pass another week before cashing in on some encouraging model news. It looks like we will be shutout for the 2cnd January in a row. Odds are 95% + in that favor at the moment. Still think we are looking good to end the 42 day spell -1 BN and hit climo snowfall. Time will tell.
Todays all time record low occured on this date at GSO is -8. Also the biggest snow Ive personally witnessed in my county was Feb 28,2004 of 18 inches. All time record for the county is 26 inches from one storm. Bottom line it may not look like a royal flush on the models at H5, TC etc, but it aint over yet folks.
 
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If you ever want to know your all time record snowfall for a county in NC. Fishel,wral have a NC map, you can point and click, pulls up alltime 3day,2 day and 24 hour record for each county. Pretty neat
 
SD said:
If I lived between charleston and myrtle I'd be glued to the radar right now with those returns only 40-50 miles away
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I'm still wondering if a few showers will sneak into the FL coast from Daytona to Canaveral corridor later tonight just before the upper air gets too warm for snow. If so, with 850s below 0C and thicknesses below 540, I wonder if there could at least be a little snow mixed with the light rain? I know the surface will be above 32 near the coast. @pcbjr, are you going to chase this? ;)

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Landfall in 15 mins Folly Beach. Maybe Stormsfurry is chasing. Snowband rolling in
 
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