Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[pcbjr]

Hey everyone, I am sure you're seeing random outages and error pages occasionally. This is not your end, and the maintenance should be complete now.

Also, the blog and wiki pages are back up. It may take up to 48 hours to propagate for everyone.

Thanks, Shawn!

Folks,
I have updated Wiki - if anyone sees a thread that is missing there and needs to be included, please PM me.
Best!
Phil

 

[GaWx]

For many runs in a row, the Euro has been insisting that ATL's snow drought would end by tomorrow morning in that it has been showing several periods of flurries (see below). Finally something for ATL snowlovers to look forward to and there could end up being several hours of flurries on and off between this evening and early tomorrow afternoon thanks to a clipperlike strong upper level low moving SE. The image below suggests that the most widespread flurries may be tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, fantastic winter wx here these next 4 days. I'm loving it!

 

[Downeastnc]

It looks like January of 2020’s AO will likely come in 3rd highest on record (back to 1950) (see below) with I think +2.5+. The only two higher ones were in 1989 and 1993. Late 2/1989 and mid 3/1993 had snowstorms for some fwiw. Both of those even gave way down at SAV rare snows.

I don’t know about snowstorms as those are very hard to predict, but analogs I’ve seen suggest a good shot at a sustained cold period somewhere within 2/20-3/20. The MJO will hopefully be in a better position then.

Late Feb 89 was a Top 5 if not top 3 storm here, I was a senior in HS and that storm had huge drifts and gave us at least a foot....I love the last week of Feb and the first week of March, historically they are when we get the biggest hits....there will be a couple of snowstorms this year up in NC I think and probably the upstates

 

[accu35]

I'm still interested in the Wednesday onset. Second run in a row euro is painting some snow in MS.

 

[Webberweather53]

The latest EPS thru the end of January into the first few days of February is basically average, maybe a degree or two above and also very active. Not a terrible or amaze balls pattern by any means but it’s hardly a torch and good enough to sneak in a storm if we get the timing just right.

Worth noting that more modest continental polar air masses in late January like we may see from time to time the next few weeks are equivalent to beastly arctic air masses during early March when most of our climo(s) are still sufficient to produce snow.

 

[pcbjr]

The latest EPS thru the end of January into the first few days of February is basically average, maybe a degree or two above and also very active. Not a terrible or amaze balls pattern by any means but it’s hardly a torch and good enough to sneak in a storm if we get the timing just right.

Worth noting that more modest continental polar air masses in late January like we may see from time to time the next few weeks are equivalent to beastly arctic air masses during early March when most of our climo(s) are still sufficient to produce snow.

View attachment 31538

Webb,
If it verifies, this time of year, the Gulf Coast might just might smile ... if we get sleet, that's typically when ...
Phil

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The latest EPS thru the end of January into the first few days of February is basically average, maybe a degree or two above and also very active. Not a terrible or amaze balls pattern by any means but it’s hardly a torch and good enough to sneak in a storm if we get the timing just right.

Worth noting that more modest continental polar air masses in late January like we may see from time to time the next few weeks are equivalent to beastly arctic air masses during early March when most of our climo(s) are still sufficient to produce snow.

View attachment 31538

I guess my concern would be, are these average/BN temps going to me skewed by low highs and above average lows. Big soakers holding our high temps down with no real cold temperatures to follow? That torch into Canada is just worrisome for early February at least. Any analogs on southeastern snows with these types of +anomalies going on up in Canada the GL region?

 

[crecre9]

About 5 hours of flurries this morning in Huntsville. Temp forecasted of mid 30s busted, high today was 28. To be fair, low temp forecast for this morning also busted, was supposed to be in the teens but only got down to 22.

 

[KyloG]

I don’t see the MJO going into the warm phases like early Jan. The beastly tPV still is our biggest obstacle IMO and unfortunately don’t see much hope on that.

 

[GaWx]

Could this mean nighttime snow flurries between Daytona and Cape Canaveral tomorrow night if this map were to verify? Thicknesses are near 534 dm and 850s are near -3 C. 925s are near 0C and 2m temps are near 40. This map is for 9PM.

 

[KyloG]

looks like we get a reprieve from the rain for a week or so but the week 2 picks back up

 

[GaWx]

Ooops, I forgot to post the map lol:

So, could this be snow flurries just north of Cape Canaveral tomorrow night if this were to verify? Winds are coming down the peninsula and so are not allowing modification from the ocean. 850s are -3C. Thicknesses are 534 dm. 2M temps are near 40 F.

 

[SD]

That baby west coast ridge is so cute. In all seriousness though we could get lucky there it really isn't that bad.

 

[KyloG]

Seen worse. I recall seeing no members showing snow in previous winters

 

[KyloG]

Little better in the triad

 

[SD]

Little better in the triad

View attachment 31548

A lot of the CPC D7 analogs rolled forward the other day were great for the triad/foothills/mountains with a grab bag of epic, mediocre, and despair for our area

 

[MichaelJ]

Are you a WeatherBell subscriber? What did he say? His Twitter has nothing so far today. His Saturday Summary said “better late than never”. Regarding his updated winter forecast (which was colder than the slightly warmer than normal to near normal SE he originally had), many folks already knew that was going to be still another fail once we had the very warm Dec through Jan 20th.

My company is. He said that he was going to bust on the cold temps but thought the mid-atlantic and North cold still sneak in a couple of storms but the heaviest amounts would be inland away for the major cities. He thinks it will be cooler by a degree or so in the SE for the next 3-4 weeks (mainly due to lower daytime highs because of rain) but with the cold being scoured out of Canada, not likely we will see any true cold air for a while

The better late than never comment was concerning the lateness of the Saturday Summary, not the cold air

 

[Webberweather53]

A lot of the CPC D7 analogs rolled forward the other day were great for the triad/foothills/mountains with a grab bag of epic, mediocre, and despair for our area

Sounds like a stereotypical NINO.

Even during the 1982-83 & 1997-98 super NINO Januarys that also had a +EPO/+NAO/+WPO/+PNA parts of central NC managed to score.

 

[tramadoc]

Late Feb 89 was a Top 5 if not top 3 storm here, I was a senior in HS and that storm had huge drifts and gave us at least a foot....I love the last week of Feb and the first week of March, historically they are when we get the biggest hits....there will be a couple of snowstorms this year up in NC I think and probably the upstates

Guess were the same age or so. I graduated in 88.

 

[Snownut]

Looks like same ole same ole headed into lat Jan early Feb.

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