strongwxnc
Member
Do you have a link for this? Thanks!!
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Do you have a link for this? Thanks!!
Fountainguy97
Member
Here you go. It is plagued with delays as most experimental things are.
https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah this could catch a lot of people off guard in the Atlanta metro area, certainly some potential for light accumulation under heavier bands given the cold surface temps and preceding cool air mass. Cyclonic vorticity advection underneath this strong upper low will largely be forcing most of the precipitation here w/ orographic assist in the north Georgia mountains.
As we've seen in the past, it takes next to nothing to shut down Atlanta.
Yep, same situation a few years ago with that Novemeber 1st ULL that swung htrough the Midlands. I've felt okay about coastal areas seeing something, originally thinking the precipitation would be close enough.. but now the ULL idea is more prominent versus that imo.. and they are unpredictable. They tend to quickly strengthen and throw models off.. and we are seeing hints at the "idea" of moisture being "squeezed" and in the DGZ region with it, now.
Lets put it this way: On October 31st, I went to sleep saying "it isnt going to snow with that ULL" and woke up to a very heavy snow.
take a look at this. this doesn't mean it would precipitate.. but as the ULL is really cinching down, the burst of clouds start to pop and come inland over the coast with temperatures in the lower 30s.
Just saying........ the simulated "radars" may not look too promising on the 3KM NAM, but this isn't far off:
EDIT: Dew points are quite low, so may end up with Virga.
Just saying........ the simulated "radars" may not look too promising on the 3KM NAM, but this isn't far off:
EDIT: Dew points are quite low, so may end up with Virga.
yea that one was one of those great surprises we rarely get
NCSNOW
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The Mtns are gonna score huge because of wrap around, regardless of how front end plays out.
Still spitting snow up on Beech Mtn currently: https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/beech-parkway/
I would say along the coast of NC/SC may get some surprises. Dew points higher along coast.
It has trended to the point where max temp is 36 during the front end it may end up being a 100% winter event imo instead of the usual wrap around. Given it won’t take long to cool 4 degrees the wrap around should cover a much larger region than normal.
MichaelJ
Member
Sounds this morning like JB has thrown in the towel for areas south of New England for the bulk of the remaining winter, although it does look to be way below normal in April as the -NAO looks to get established smh. Looks like the EURO is taking the MJO quickly into phase 6 again
Sitting at a balmy 35
Parker
Member
I just booked a cabin about 2900 feet up in the smokies outside of Gatlinburg for the weekend. We will drive up early Saturday and come back Monday, so I will be pulling hard for a nice NW flow event.
Ron Burgundy
Member
A negative JBO (Joe Bastardi Oscillation) is the best signal yet that we’re about to get cold and wintery.
Are you a WeatherBell subscriber? What did he say? His Twitter has nothing so far today. His Saturday Summary said “better late than never”. Regarding his updated winter forecast (which was colder than the slightly warmer than normal to near normal SE he originally had), many folks already knew that was going to be still another fail once we had the very warm Dec through Jan 20th.
It looks like January of 2020’s AO will likely come in 3rd highest on record (back to 1950) (see below) with I think +2.5+. The only two higher ones were in 1989 and 1993. Late 2/1989 and mid 3/1993 had snowstorms for some fwiw. Both of those even gave way down at SAV rare snows.
I don’t know about snowstorms as those are very hard to predict, but analogs I’ve seen suggest a good shot at a sustained cold period somewhere within 2/20-3/20. The MJO will hopefully be in a better position then.
I don’t know about snowstorms as those are very hard to predict, but analogs I’ve seen suggest a good shot at a sustained cold period somewhere within 2/20-3/20. The MJO will hopefully be in a better position then.
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The Coast mountains of British Columbia look to jackpot in the coming weeks. This was the 12z Euro.. it literally snows from the beginning until the end of the run..smh
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I would start watching the pacific during the last few days of the month into the first week of Feb. We may actually get this PNA deal to work out for a short time frame and we could probably make something out of that look. My concerns here though are the models are misplacing the ridge and it will eventually trend west in time and we end up with west coast trough/Se ridge.