-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
NAM increased the RH as well this run
Jon
Member
Amazing trend last 4 runs, unfortunate it won’t matter...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The 0Z GFS/GEFS trended slightly further offshore vs the 18Z. However, the 0Z CMC joins the group in having a stronger low and further west in response to the upper level energy going offshore:
0Z CMC
0Z CMC 500 mb:
12Z CMC 500 mb:
Up next, the very crucial Doc. If Doc is not any better than the 18Z or if it is worse, I’d likely reduce the chance further. But if it is better, I’d either keep the 10% chance or even increase it.
0Z CMC
0Z CMC 500 mb:
12Z CMC 500 mb:
Up next, the very crucial Doc. If Doc is not any better than the 18Z or if it is worse, I’d likely reduce the chance further. But if it is better, I’d either keep the 10% chance or even increase it.
Last edited:
The 0Z Good Doctor says "no" as it is a bit worse than 18Z and back toward the 12Z though not all the way there. As a result, I'm reducing the chance for precip to get back to the coast to a significant degree from 10% to 5%. Next up: 6Z models. Night night!
Last edited:
Stormsfury
Member
Well, the upper feature has CHS taking note
It is interesting that a clipper-like system is expected to quickly
ripple over the region on Tuesday, slowly closing off at H5. As the
system passes over the CWA, H85 temperatures cool to -6 to -9C.
Using a blend of MOS, highs on Tuesday are expected to remain 10-13
degrees below normal. The core of the mid and high level moisture is
expected to pass to the south, however, cloud cover is expected to
increase through the daylight hours on Tuesday. By late Tuesday, the
mid-level disturbance will pass over the cold front over the western
Atlantic, resulting in cyclogenesis east of the Gulf Stream. As a
result, a few showers are forecast to develop across the outer GA
waters, temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s should support all
liquid.
It is interesting that a clipper-like system is expected to quickly
ripple over the region on Tuesday, slowly closing off at H5. As the
system passes over the CWA, H85 temperatures cool to -6 to -9C.
Using a blend of MOS, highs on Tuesday are expected to remain 10-13
degrees below normal. The core of the mid and high level moisture is
expected to pass to the south, however, cloud cover is expected to
increase through the daylight hours on Tuesday. By late Tuesday, the
mid-level disturbance will pass over the cold front over the western
Atlantic, resulting in cyclogenesis east of the Gulf Stream. As a
result, a few showers are forecast to develop across the outer GA
waters, temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s should support all
liquid.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I have to admit, this pattern is actually serviceable.
If we make a few minor adjustments to the strength/depth of the Atlantic Canada trough and are somehow able to nudge the Hudson Bay ridge a smidge further north, and push this SW US trough & west coast ridge a little eastward we might have just enough to sneak a storm in. Obviously cold air will be lacking in general here because we have a +EPO/+NAO, but a deep enough Newfoundland trough (50/50 low) can provide us just enough at least if you're near the I-40 corridor in CAD favored areas.
If we make a few minor adjustments to the strength/depth of the Atlantic Canada trough and are somehow able to nudge the Hudson Bay ridge a smidge further north, and push this SW US trough & west coast ridge a little eastward we might have just enough to sneak a storm in. Obviously cold air will be lacking in general here because we have a +EPO/+NAO, but a deep enough Newfoundland trough (50/50 low) can provide us just enough at least if you're near the I-40 corridor in CAD favored areas.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Deeper Atlantic Canada trough ~ day 10-11 and a properly timed southern stream wave....
Forevertothee
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
EPS doesn't look that bad from overnight. Looks to me that the LR trends are cooling and the once-torch is now starting to be replaced with a trough. Despite it being a bit east, it's decided to show up again and almost looks to be a split flow developing at the end as opposed to a -PNA.
Yeah, the 0Z EPS is only about 3 AN for days 6-15 averaged out vs the prior run of 5 AN. However, even the EPS has been cold biased of late (all models have been though the GEPS followed by GEFS have been the worst). So, it wouldn’t at all surprise me if it ends up being at +5 or warmer, especially considering the forecasted MJO as well as the AO/NAO indicating a continued lack of high latitude blocking.
Other than short cold periods like the one about to start, I’m leaning to no sustained cold until at least late Feb as of now. Hopefully that’s wrong but I see no reason to bet against it right now.
In the meantime, enjoy the cold of the next few days!
Last edited:
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think it would be a good idea not to take the MJO forecast at face value other than for the next few days and wait and see. Last time we went around we ended up further to the left than expected, and for a range like that, it's really unpredictable especially as we dive into the COD.
Though coming down from extremely high levels, the GEFS AO forecast still is ugly and the GEFS has been underforecasting the AO by an average of 0.5 in the longer range. In addition, the NAO forecast is still positive. Combine all of that with an uninspiring for cold MJO forecast tells me the trend is my friend and that solidly AN averaged out over the next 4 weeks is the pattern to bet on though hopefully not anything like the torch we’ve had the prior 4 weeks. The good news is that history says a cold late Feb into March is quite doable, if not somewhat probable:
Fwiw and not much I know, but the 3k NAM has the slp closer to the upper energy and closest to the coast. Verbatim you would think the precip shield would be a little more expansive to the NW, at least getting some to the coast. It's a long shot but I wouldn't discount the beaches seeing something fall just yet
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Currently just south of Myrtle for the weekend and yesterday was wonderful here, sunny mid 60s. Today it’s overcast and mid 60s already. Supposed to be around 30 tonight, big changes coming.Fwiw and not much I know, but the 3k NAM has the slp closer to the upper energy and closest to the coast. Verbatim you would think the precip shield would be a little more expansive to the NW, at least getting some to the coast. It's a long shot but I wouldn't discount the beaches seeing something fall just yet
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Fwiw and not much I know, but the 3k NAM has the slp closer to the upper energy and closest to the coast. Verbatim you would think the precip shield would be a little more expansive to the NW, at least getting some to the coast. It's a long shot but I wouldn't discount the beaches seeing something fall just yet
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
The new ICON is better as it actually has light snow near the coast in the Wilmington area (look closely for the small light blue area):
Now take the slp location of the 3K NAM with the NW expansion of precip from the slp of the ICON and you got something lol
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Shaggy
Member
I told myself I'd watch it till 12z tomorrow. Like I told rain cold, if I was expecting a foot it would definitely change in the short range. If I was I-17 or east I would be more interested but things still have time to make enough changes for coast to see some snow showers.