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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Ron Burgundy said:
If that ULL were to drop 150 miles west and tap the gulf, what would be the implications for the Deep South?
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It would pull poleward as a Miller A..but that’s neither here nor there. It’s off the table. Too progressive a pattern. We’ll get another Miller A bomb one of these days, but this ain’t it
 
Ron Burgundy said:
If that ULL were to drop 150 miles west and tap the gulf, what would be the implications for the Deep South?
Click to expand...
If you look at the shape of the trough, it's way to positively tilted. No moisture advection. If it were to do what you said and tap the Gulf, you'd see more of an outbreak of precipitation. Jimmy is right in that it would probably spawn a surface low farther west. I think it would still translate east, given the progressive pattern.

I'd like to see it continue to dig and close off more and maybe even become detached from the flow, but I don't think we'll get there. In the end, we're pretty much grasping at straws here for areas outside of the immediate coastal sections. But it's all we got.

Personally, I think it would take more than these incremental steps that we're seeing over the time we have remaining. We are getting to the point where we need something to be really modeled wrong, if we're going to be in for a surprise. That's my opinion, based on observing systems like this through the years. But it doesn't mean I will turn out right. It's weather, and the uncertainty makes it fun.
 
FWIW, NAM little more consolidated and a touch west with our energy
0dbe13c26a575cbfefe23c43a1815786.gif


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metwannabe said:
FWIW, NAM little more consolidated and a touch west with our energy
0dbe13c26a575cbfefe23c43a1815786.gif


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Meh... in the end it really means nothing. Gonna take something major, like the whole flow shifted west about 500 miles to allow this to get significant precip inland. Its painful to watch, nothing slowing down the flow, positive tilt all the way to the coast and then way ots....boom. Every run

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metwannabe said:
Meh... in the end it really means nothing. Gonna take something major, like the whole flow shifted west about 500 miles to allow this to get significant precip inland. Its painful to watch, nothing slowing down the flow, positive tilt all the way to the coast and then way ots....boom. Every run

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nailed it. So close but so far. In this case it’s not the simple NW trend but we need the entire pattern to just shift west significantly.
We needed that 7-9 days out and we still need that this close.
It’s not going to happen. Still some flakes could fly for some coastal sections though.
 
I know most of you have heard of ISOTHERM from American Weather. He is really smart with weather patterns. He now is basically saying winter is over for most of us outside the west and upper midwest. He said it dont matter what phase the mjo is in that it will still be warm. I am thinking march will be balls to the walls cold most likely.
 
Mr. Golf said:
I know most of you have heard of ISOTHERM from American Weather. He is really smart with weather patterns. He now is basically saying winter is over for most of us outside the west and upper midwest. He said it dont matter what phase the mjo is in that it will still be warm. I am thinking march will be balls to the walls cold most likely.
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What we have going for us is he nailed the first half of winter. Odds he nails the second half is not near as likely. Although, betting warm and rainy is a pretty good bet. It would only take one good storm to change this winter for the better
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What we have going for us is he nailed the first half of winter. Odds he nails the second half is not near as likely. Although, betting warm and rainy is a pretty good bet. It would only take one good storm to change this winter for the better
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Saying winter is over is fashionable given current model trends. Hardly a hot take, pun intended.


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