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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

mydoortotheworld said:
Do you mind explaining to me why we want this feature to tilt more negatively?
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Rapid cyclogenesis closer to the coast, basically a negative tilt would help that low form closer to the coast and get precip further NW but more important is where that occurs, if it does occur. Offshore native tilt not gonna do any of us any good, for my backyard if it were to do that around Atlanta I'd be in good shape for you would have to be a little bit further South West I'm afraid.

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metwannabe said:
Rapid cyclogenesis closer to the coast, basically a negative tilt would help that low form closer to the coast and get precip further NW but more important is where that occurs, if it does occur. Offshore native tilt not gonna do any of us any good, for my backyard if it were to do that around Atlanta I'd be in good shape for you would have to be a little bit further South West I'm afraid.

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Its oh so close. This hurts, in a good winter someone gets a foot, this year just sadness
 

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mydoortotheworld said:
Do you mind explaining to me why we want this feature to tilt more negatively?
Click to expand...
It's also indicative of a very vigorous s/w, that's why some models are showing some precip with the ull itself

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SD said:
Its oh so close. This hurts, in a good winter someone gets a foot, this year just sadness
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I will watch it till Sunday night or Monday morning and if the models havent improved then oh well nothing lost because I'm not suppose to get anything anyways. The ones that really hurt are the ones that jackpot me 48 hours out only to shift NW and crush the triad.
 
Shaggy said:
I will watch it till Sunday night or Monday morning and if the models havent improved then oh well nothing lost because I'm not suppose to get anything anyways. The ones that really hurt are the ones that jackpot me 48 hours out only to shift NW and crush the triad.
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Same here, really want to see how consolidated the energy is in the northern plains around 12z Monday
 
Hopefully what is being modeled is more of a turn back to colder .. 12z euro came in cooler .. now the Gfs came in cooler and GEFS much colder .... trend must continue if we have any hope
 
The 12z CFS shows that late week system winding up with some wrap around snow. Just to let the one's that don't know, the CFS has a much lower resolution (56km) so it's not going to be as accurate as some of the other models. To add to this, on the 18z GEFS mean, it's still showing that the low would remain in the southern stream. If that deeper cold air wraps in behind the low, we could see snow early as next weekend in the southeast lol. I'm also still watching the last week for this month and into February for a winter storm. Exciting times ahead I'd say!

prateptype_cat.conus.png

GEFSUS_prec_meanprec_162.png
You can see the 540 trying to dig down north and northwest of the low as the low is down in the Gulf on the GEFS mean. But, as the low tracks along the Eastern coast, the 540 is knocking on the TN state line.

GEFSUS_prec_meanprec_192.png

850mb temps from the GEFS mean

GEFSUS_850_meantemp_192.png
 
WxWatch said:
The 12z CFS shows that late week system winding up with some wrap around snow. Just to let the one's that don't know, the CFS has a much lower resolution (56km) so it's not going to be as accurate as some of the other models. To add to this, on the 18z GEFS mean, it's still showing that the low would remain in the southern stream. If that deeper cold air wraps in behind the low, we could see snow early as next weekend in the southeast lol. I'm also still watching the last week for this month and into February for a winter storm. Exciting times ahead I'd say!

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View attachment 31350
You can see the 540 trying to dig down north and northwest of the low as the low is down in the Gulf on the GEFS mean. But, as the low tracks along the Eastern coast, the 540 is knocking on the TN state line.

View attachment 31351

850mb temps from the GEFS mean

View attachment 31352
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That low will not producce snow
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
You are correct, not for us......Not as long as it is in that spot. Too much down-sloping.
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Some of the GEFS members were interesting wrapping it up so quickly the cold air swings in fast enough for NC and SC for some good thumping backside snow ... probably just noise but interesting
 
Unfortunately the weathermodels site lags on the precip type maps for the 6 and 18z Euro (it's still only out to hour 39), but here is the 3 hr total precip map and the 700mb RH:





The reason you aren't seeing more moisture until it digs to the coast and goes neutral/ negative, if that the Gulf is totally cut off.

I suspect if it went beyond 90 hours there might be a more westerly solution than 12z, but hard to say since it looks similar.

@LoganElliott40
depends on where you're at. I think Charlotte needs it to drop in and start to tilt further west.
 
Meanwhile, for my area of interest.
GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_114.png
 
baroowoofr said:
Unfortunately the weathermodels site lags on the precip type maps for the 6 and 18z Euro (it's still only out to hour 39), but here is the 3 hr total precip map and the 700mb RH:





The reason you aren't seeing more moisture until it digs to the coast and goes neutral/ negative, if that the Gulf is totally cut off.

I suspect if it went beyond 90 hours there might be a more westerly solution than 12z, but hard to say since it looks similar.

@LoganElliott40
depends on where you're at. I think Charlotte needs it to drop in and start to tilt further west.
Click to expand...

It looks pretty, but it still needs to dig more and closing off about 4 contours wouldn't hurt either. As is, pretty, but no moisture return.
 
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