packfan98
Moderator
Did you know that practically all of Europe is further north than us in the SE? London has approximately the same Latitude as Saskatoon in Canada.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Boy that sure is trending the wrong way. Hard. Getting worse out in time.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
So, just to make sure @pcbjr is aware of this, once again nearly 20% of the EPS members (9) have snow in N FL! And note that whereas the mean dropped in coastal GA/SC/NC, it remained or even increased in NE FL! We know future runs will change, but wouldn't it be amazing if the only active member to get snow from this system would be Phil? And remember his prediction for a quick burst of unusual SE winter weather this month that he made months ago?! Hmmmm. If N FL ends up getting snow, I may ask him to buy me some lottery tickets. Just to reiterate, in the years since individual EPS members have been available, I don't recall anything like this near Phil's abode keeping in mind that 850s were above 0C in Jan of 2018 in Hogtown.
Meanwhile, today is an absolutely glorious winter day in the SE! It has been a long wait for me. Enjoy it while you can. I'll be out in it later.
CFS still looking really good for all of Feb and really March. Week by week, days 1-7 are ugly, and then it looks good every week after. Can't imagine it has even a shot at being right...but we'll see soon enough. Wonder how the JMA is doing?
NoSnowATL
Member
Very similar to the CFS. Going through 7 and low 8. It’s going to be a battle.
JMA-CFS - kangaroo vs everyone else. All 3 say cold comes in February.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If we keep seeing euro trending, GFS trying.... there might be some crazy NAM runs. Someone please correct me, but the 2014 event, (I know different setup) wasn’t that like didn’t show up until 72 hours out?
Last edited:
It was there but drastically came West inside 72 hours, yes.
ok, ty. 18z GFS is a bit west again early in the run.
GFS closing off the upper low over WC MO hour 78
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS definitely going in the right direction at least w/ our vort max over Missouri.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Baby steps? Lol
BHS1975
Member
Not bad.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BHS1975
Member
Euro still better.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Shaggy
Member
Euro still better.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Take a blend?
Yes, I do, it's possible it could get brutally cold!
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Webb, others....what do you think the possibility **IF** the euro continues the closed ULL it slows down a bit more?
snowlover91
Member
A blend is still dry for everyone except immediate coastal areas with a possible flurry or two. The 18z GFS is actually worse by the time it makes it to the SE, more positive tilt which won’t cut it.
IMO this one isn’t happening. Coastal sections MIGHT see a few flurries or showers but we have strong agreement from the EPS, GEFS, Euro, GFS, CMC and NAM on how this should play out. I see this being similar in impact to the coastal miss we tracked about this same time last year... that one shifted NW some but not enough. Not saying it can’t happen but imo chances are extremely low.
wow
Member
Big ol' nothing burger that also helps to squash any chance of the Jan 24-25 wave with it lingering back.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Do you mind explaining to me why we want this feature to tilt more negatively?