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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

whatalife said:
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So, just to make sure @pcbjr is aware of this, once again nearly 20% of the EPS members (9) have snow in N FL! And note that whereas the mean dropped in coastal GA/SC/NC, it remained or even increased in NE FL! We know future runs will change, but wouldn't it be amazing if the only active member to get snow from this system would be Phil? And remember his prediction for a quick burst of unusual SE winter weather this month that he made months ago?! Hmmmm. If N FL ends up getting snow, I may ask him to buy me some lottery tickets. Just to reiterate, in the years since individual EPS members have been available, I don't recall anything like this near Phil's abode keeping in mind that 850s were above 0C in Jan of 2018 in Hogtown.

Meanwhile, today is an absolutely glorious winter day in the SE! It has been a long wait for me. Enjoy it while you can. I'll be out in it later.
 
CFS still looking really good for all of Feb and really March. Week by week, days 1-7 are ugly, and then it looks good every week after. Can't imagine it has even a shot at being right...but we'll see soon enough. Wonder how the JMA is doing?
 
Rain Cold said:
CFS still looking really good for all of Feb and really March. Week by week, days 1-7 are ugly, and then it looks good every week after. Can't imagine it has even a shot at being right...but we'll see soon enough. Wonder how the JMA is doing?
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Very similar to the CFS. Going through 7 and low 8. It’s going to be a battle.
JMA-CFS - kangaroo vs everyone else. All 3 say cold comes in February.


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If we keep seeing euro trending, GFS trying.... there might be some crazy NAM runs. Someone please correct me, but the 2014 event, (I know different setup) wasn’t that like didn’t show up until 72 hours out?
 
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deltadog03 said:
If we keep seeing euro trending, GFS trying.... there might be some crazy NAM runs. Someone please correct me, but the 2014 event, (I know different setup) wasn’t that like didn’t shoe up until 72 hours out?
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It was there but drastically came West inside 72 hours, yes.
 
Does anyone actually see this happening!? Would be nice!
 

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Webb, others....what do you think the possibility **IF** the euro continues the closed ULL it slows down a bit more?
 
Shaggy said:
Take a blend?
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A blend is still dry for everyone except immediate coastal areas with a possible flurry or two. The 18z GFS is actually worse by the time it makes it to the SE, more positive tilt which won’t cut it.

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IMO this one isn’t happening. Coastal sections MIGHT see a few flurries or showers but we have strong agreement from the EPS, GEFS, Euro, GFS, CMC and NAM on how this should play out. I see this being similar in impact to the coastal miss we tracked about this same time last year... that one shifted NW some but not enough. Not saying it can’t happen but imo chances are extremely low.
 
metwannabe said:
If it cuts off, as it has been trending, and comes in stronger, wouldn't be surprised to see that increase with the ull. I just need it to tilt sooner to pull that slp back NW. Wouldn't it be something if y'all could score from the ull and coastal folks from the slp?

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Do you mind explaining to me why we want this feature to tilt more negatively?
 
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