What do you have at 500mb you know I'm going to ask you this daily
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
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NoSnowATL
Member
CFS does this every winter. We will be in 5 or 6 in Feb and that’s almost a guarantee. CFS is awful and JB will use it when all other models should warm. Our only chance is Late Feb- March.
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I don't remember any extreme changes like this ever taking place on the models. I wouldn't bite on any solution until there is actual consistency at this point.
Jon
Member
This is not true and you should probably look at past CFSv2 forecasts during the winter months and compare them to actual anomalies.
It does decent and sometimes outright nails colder or warm patterns. It does much better than Euro weeklies. Just like every seasonal model, it’s not perfect and busts from time to time....but to say it’s awful is wrong imo. It’s a decent seasonal.
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Stubborn PV coupled with an active STJ and terrible MJO : Winter 2020
I’m not sure going forward in time we can even win with an active southern stream. I think Nina’s will give us our best shot at seasonal/BN +snow winter’s in the future. Although I’m not sure a Niña could have even saved us from that cold bottled up in the arctic region this winter.
I’m not sure going forward in time we can even win with an active southern stream. I think Nina’s will give us our best shot at seasonal/BN +snow winter’s in the future. Although I’m not sure a Niña could have even saved us from that cold bottled up in the arctic region this winter.
Regardless of the warmth on the Euro, I still like the look at H5. It just needs to be colder. The GEFS on a longwave scale looks almost identical, and it maintains cold air. The old thing I would change in the Euro is to raise the heights over western Canada and Alaska. Usually, with warm Euro runs, you can clearly tell what's causing the warmth, but I honestly don't see it. Even if it were small details, this looks doesn't take much to bring major cold.
In over 130 years of official records, Charlotte has never gone snowless for an entire winter, and only 6 or 7 times was there only a trace, so yes one would expect that even if we end up above normal on temps from now through the end of winter, history says Charlotte is more likely than not to have at least one snowfall
I wouldn't go with the warm Euro or EPS. There is model agreement between today's 12z GEFS and EPS at 500mb. These maps are valid at the same day and time. Not sure why the EPS is warmer than the GEFS? and the GEFS is colder....but they both have the same setup at 500mb. GEFS is warmer than it's previous run, but it still has negative 2m temp anomalies in the southeast during and after the 27th. Hmmm, something isn't right. Sometimes I really do wonder if these models miscalculate numbers.
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WxBlue
Meteorologist
Lot of zonal subtropical jet flow coming up. That's not gonna get the job done this winter, y'all.
Why would you go with the colder GFS/GEFS and not the warmer Euro/EPS?I wouldn't go with the warm Euro or EPS. There is model agreement between today's 12z GEFS and EPS at 500mb. These maps are valid at the same day and time. Not sure why the EPS is warmer than the GEFS? and the GEFS is colder....but they both have the same setup at 500mb. GEFS is warmer than it's previous run, but it still has negative 2m temp anomalies in the southeast during and after the 27th. Hmmm, something isn't right. Sometimes I really do wonder if these models miscalculate numbers.
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Yep, mild pacific air along with it
That's exactly what I was thinking! This is crazy, no one would know which one to go with, but they're both identical at 500mb. There shouldn't be a huge difference with temps if they both have identical setups. Why would you go with the colder GFS/GEFS? Hasn't it been pretty consistent showing the cold? And the EPS has been flip flopping?
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crappy pacific+enhancement of the STJ from the AAM=poop sammich
Yes GEFS has for the most part been consistently cold but its cold bias has been the worst based on verifications. So, as the cold later days of each run get closer in, they warm up considerably most of the time. It is kind of sneaky. The latter parts of each GEFS run have indeed been consistently cold, but guess what....they've been consistently way too cold like a mirage because they're not real. The Euro's cold bias hasn't been as bad as it jumps around more although it too has been averaging too cold when all of the runs are averaged out. For goodness sakes though, it would be hard to believe that this latest much warmer EPS is too cold!
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I't evident that the models are dramatically inconsistent beyond 7 days, especially with the temps. H5 isn't consistent, but better than the temps. Maybe the computers don't know what to do with the abnormally strong STJ and is over reacting in the mid range ? Hopefully the temps will fall back down , at least some when we get into the short range?
Yea, it is hard for the +AAM/El Nino by itself to do magic without the cooperation of -AO/-NAO/more favorable MJO, etc. Just like any other index, the AAM is only one of them and doesn't necessarily take over. But from everything I've learned recently, it is better to have it for SE cold chances than to not have it (just like weak to moderate El Nino).
Cutter city until either coast decides to offer some help too. Then you remove any semblance of a PV from the hudson region and actually go with a zonal flow there and the D10 eps is about as ugly as you can get.
baroowoofr
Member
Bleaklies, for those interested:
Make of them whatever you'd like.
meh...
Make of them whatever you'd like.
meh...