This verbatim ain’t transient looking in a colder pattern to me, only thing that would keep things cool in this pattern is rain
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
+EPO, early winter nino pattern here, at least the gefs looks better
RollTide18
Member
And this is why I paused when I kept seeing this great looking pattern but it was only in the medium to long range. When we keep kicking the can down the road I start to get worried because the models to me are saying that the great pattern shown doesn't have a great chance of verifying.
Hate being a warm miser but I agree, warmth always finds a way, whether it’s a SER or mild pacific air from a bad pacific
NCSNOW
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Nam is Holding serve on those foretasted highs in the 32-36 range Saturday in NC CAD. Unlike the GFS and Euro 72 hr forecast Delta Dog showed with surface temps in the upper 40's. Remember this when a real Cad Event shows up in the 10 to 15 day range as we flip the Calendar to Fab Feb.
The 12Z EPS was way warmer than the 0Z EPS. Now, it stays warm for longer and only cools off to near or slightly BN at 360 vs the cold of the 0Z. Look at the bright side: thank goodness today's Bleaklies will not be run on the 12Z!
Here's still another map showing how much warmer:
Here's still another map showing how much warmer:
Yeah temps over DPs look like there gonna be in the 30s/ dps in 20s or teens so some areas could easily wet bulb to freezing
NCSNOW
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That's a high of 51-54 here
By the way GSO is at +10.9 for the month of January. Unbelievable luck!
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Here's the GEFS mjo fwiw
And CFS mjo
And EPS
In conclusion, they are all miles apart and have room to change for better or worse.
And CFS mjo
And EPS
In conclusion, they are all miles apart and have room to change for better or worse.
accu35
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While everyone is on the LR discussion, i wouldn't let our guards down on this storm. This is improving with each run to get some onset snow for parts of Louisiana/MS/AL before we warm. Some Gefs members shows this possibility.
The aam spike is doing us no favors
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Let's be real for a minute. Most everyone here loves winter weather, and to some extent cold weather for at least part of the season. So it's disconcerting to see the back and forth swings in the models, especially after the last week of things looking to move in a better direction. Honestly, I wouldn't worry very much except that it's not really a one-off run or one-off model cycle that has shown a reversion to a warmer pattern in the longer range. We've seen this trend slowly emerging for a few days. Given that, given that there is a lot of historical precedence for things like this coming to fruition, and given that any really good sustained cold looks have been getting pushed back, as usual, all season, you have to give more weight to the probability that it is going to get mild again, as opposed to the models being wrong.
We can spend time here dissecting long range maps, looking at the possibilities that a storm might do this or that. We can do that because that's what we do here. But in reality, given the way the pattern appears to be shaping up, a big winter storm has to be given very low odds, as it stands right at this minute.
None of this means the models are right or will be right or can't change tomorrow. But looking at seasonal trends and listening to what the best forecasting tools that we have are saying to us, there is a preponderance of evidence to suggest that milder solutions are in our future for a while.
Now, as this relates to the board mood, we have to maintain a pleasant atmosphere, at the very least in this thread. That means, if we're going to espouse a point of view or contradict someone, it should be done with some evidence or rationale. It also means, that we ought not taunt other members in a passive-aggressive manner in order to get under their skin. In this thread, let's discuss the pattern, pros and cons. Wishcasting up snowstorms at 360 hours is not reality. Bittercasting warmth at 384 is not reality. Making a decent pattern post but topping it off with a comment like, "this sucks hahaha the snow lovers are gonna hate this one", isn't a good idea. Put that stuff in the Whamby thread.
And regarding the Whamby thread, it's not set up as a place to leave respect and decorum at the door. There's going to be griping in there. This is a well-known fact. Going in there and complaining about the complaining going on in there is really kind of silly. If certain posters bother you, just ignore them. It super easy. Trolling somebody just to get them to attack back isn't nice and isn't helpful to the board.
The intent is for this place to be a place where everyone can come and discuss weather, whether they have a deep meteorological knowledge or not, and not feel shamed for doing it. If you want to vent with others in the Whamby thread with other venters, ok. If you hate that kind of thing, it's really easy to stay out of that thread. The site doesn't magically take you into it when you login.
We all want the site to grow and become the best weather forum out there. That can happen. But we all need to help to make it that way.
We can spend time here dissecting long range maps, looking at the possibilities that a storm might do this or that. We can do that because that's what we do here. But in reality, given the way the pattern appears to be shaping up, a big winter storm has to be given very low odds, as it stands right at this minute.
None of this means the models are right or will be right or can't change tomorrow. But looking at seasonal trends and listening to what the best forecasting tools that we have are saying to us, there is a preponderance of evidence to suggest that milder solutions are in our future for a while.
Now, as this relates to the board mood, we have to maintain a pleasant atmosphere, at the very least in this thread. That means, if we're going to espouse a point of view or contradict someone, it should be done with some evidence or rationale. It also means, that we ought not taunt other members in a passive-aggressive manner in order to get under their skin. In this thread, let's discuss the pattern, pros and cons. Wishcasting up snowstorms at 360 hours is not reality. Bittercasting warmth at 384 is not reality. Making a decent pattern post but topping it off with a comment like, "this sucks hahaha the snow lovers are gonna hate this one", isn't a good idea. Put that stuff in the Whamby thread.
And regarding the Whamby thread, it's not set up as a place to leave respect and decorum at the door. There's going to be griping in there. This is a well-known fact. Going in there and complaining about the complaining going on in there is really kind of silly. If certain posters bother you, just ignore them. It super easy. Trolling somebody just to get them to attack back isn't nice and isn't helpful to the board.
The intent is for this place to be a place where everyone can come and discuss weather, whether they have a deep meteorological knowledge or not, and not feel shamed for doing it. If you want to vent with others in the Whamby thread with other venters, ok. If you hate that kind of thing, it's really easy to stay out of that thread. The site doesn't magically take you into it when you login.
We all want the site to grow and become the best weather forum out there. That can happen. But we all need to help to make it that way.
We may get a loop, after which it rolls back left again. It's hard to know how it's going to play out.
This may be me being an optimist, but I still am not ready to consider this winter over. We still good, solid 6 weeks of winter. I also have been living in Charlotte for 12 plus years and have never seen a winter with no snow. I think if and when we do get something, it won't show up until we get within the 5 day period. IMO, the LR forecasts from the models and the CPC haven't been that accurate this year. So, I have a hard taking them verbatim.
We have 6 weeks left but the next 2 weeks look like garbage. Essentially we are working with 4 weeks in Feb. I'm not ready to write off Feb yet as who really knows. But warmth is winning very easily right now.