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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

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How serious do we take the NAM when global guidance is saying rain? I just don’t model watch much for the mountains so I’m not sure what to think
Although the globals show rain, a lot of times the NAM is good at picking up on small details such as a meso high. Not saying it’s right this time, but it does tend to do well in this timeframe with details such as just mentioned.
 

Tagat

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1580436361351.png

The strange output from the 12 to the 15 is where the station went offline after the Squall line came thru.
 

Myfrotho704_

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Hrrr verbatim supports wet snow at the onset, especially if you cool the BL from better rates, someone could get lucky with a heavy burst of absolute slop, soundings support lots of clumping especially with that isothermal layer between 850-930mb B0DE6198-4BFF-45C4-9592-98436EA001BA.png
 
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
650 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-011200-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
650 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A brief period of snow is possible after the onset of precipitation
sometime later this morning through the afternoon. This is most
likely above 3000 feet, although locally lower, especially across
the escarpment into the Blue Ridge mountains. A quick dusting to an
inch will be possible, before transitioning to rain. Snow will likely
continue above 5000 feet with a few inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Snow showers will continue Saturday into Saturday night. Snow levels
around 5000 feet during the afternoon are expected to fall to around
2500 feet before coming to an end Saturday night. Additional light
accumulations will be possible, mainly above 3500 feet.

Ray has hoisted the light snow snowman meter on his site..looks like a general 2-3” with a shot at higher amounts above 5k feet..Jimmy Deluxe!
 

Parker

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
650 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-011200-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
650 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A brief period of snow is possible after the onset of precipitation
sometime later this morning through the afternoon. This is most
likely above 3000 feet, although locally lower, especially across
the escarpment into the Blue Ridge mountains. A quick dusting to an
inch will be possible, before transitioning to rain. Snow will likely
continue above 5000 feet with a few inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Snow showers will continue Saturday into Saturday night. Snow levels
around 5000 feet during the afternoon are expected to fall to around
2500 feet before coming to an end Saturday night. Additional light
accumulations will be possible, mainly above 3500 feet.

Ray has hoisted the light snow snowman meter on his site..looks like a general 2-3” with a shot at higher amounts above 5k feet..Jimmy Deluxe!
Looks like I’m in the question mark zone but not a far drive to the goods!
 

GeorgiaGirl

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To perk up this thread just a little bit...

Average high was 63.3 for this month, the average low was 42. Very blah.

From the 17th on, the average high was 56.6. Pretty much normal for what's supposed to be the dead of winter (although it's maybe skewed by a few days). No torch, no cold outside a couple days.
 

EmersonGA

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Max - 73
Low - 16
Avg - 47.4 with 6.2 above normal. My station had 7.47 for the month.
 

Jon

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So just to try it. I believe this is what Maxar was doing that @GaWx mentioned but maybe he can clarify. (oddly enough my results are nowhere close to what they were mentioning?)

This is taking the Date centered on the CPC 8-14 day analog (1/12/19) and using the 9 analog dates in the chart to generate a +20 day composite for 2/1/19...

Behold.

View attachment 29503


Going forward in time only TWO days, gives me this (went forward 2 days in each composite year, making this the supposed forecast for 2/3/2020 based on CPC's analog year composite)
View attachment 29504

2/4/2020
View attachment 29505

2/5/2020
View attachment 29506


2/6/2020
View attachment 29507



you get the idea. If we were to make a 4 day composite of those last 4 images, we would have quite possibly the coldest best pattern ever. So are we to expect that Feb 3-6? ...common sense would be screaming no.

So I used to do this and provide animations of the predicted pattern, etc. 9 times out of 10 some wild blockbuster pattern showed up and I thought I was onto the next generation of weather forecasting...problem was these composites never materialized.

We'll compare these next month and see how well they did. The issue is CPC 8-14 day analogs will create a centered date of 01/13/19 today and the composite years will be changed, which will change these maps and thus another solution for a period only 1 day different in lead time...
Update: This didn’t work out.


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