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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

KyloG said:
The tPV is a real problem and it will be tough to get deep cold far enough south. Why we see winter cancel going up everywhere. We have 6-7 weeks to go in a winter and nobody knows how the tPV is going to behave in early/mid February.

But, what the models are advertising looks cold "enough" to give some folks on this board a chance.

View attachment 31154
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Thanks, yeah I was hoping it was more on it's way toward our side. Bummer.
 
Too chaotic. Three separate waves in close proximity. Looks like the one that turns dominant is heading SSE again (boy is that familiar) and the one that may have been producing recently gets absorbed/strung out.
 
Oof! Not a lot going our way at the surface on this run but look at that table setter!DBB87450-0B9D-41EE-A288-A8DF221264FB.png
 
It's really astonishing how we appear to go from one bad, stable pattern to another. Big Pacific ridge of death to a big, Arctic polar vortex of death. It looks like our string of negative EPO winters is set to come to an end, while our string of positive AO/NAO winters will continue on indefinitely. It is almost impossible to believe that it is impossible to have one winter month anymore with a -AO/NAO combo. I mean, even if we incorporate the stuff which shall not be named in this thread, the law of averages/sheer luck would argue for a once in a blue moon type of deal. Wow.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's really astonishing how we appear to go from one bad, stable pattern to another. Big Pacific ridge of death to a big, Arctic polar vortex of death. It looks like our string of negative EPO winters is set to come to an end, while our string of positive AO/NAO winters will continue on indefinitely. It is almost impossible to believe that it is impossible to have one winter month anymore with a -AO/NAO combo. I mean, even if we incorporate the stuff which shall not be named in this thread, the law of averages/sheer luck would argue for a once in a blue moon type of deal. Wow.
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Yeah, you can see alot of the cold bottled up over the pole with such a compact tPV. But, a victory to me is I don't have to turn on my AC in this type pattern, that's about what I am hoping for over the next few weeks.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_7day-0558400.png

GEFS says enough cold air comes down to give a chance.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_1day-0428800.png



You can see with the weak PNA ridge we will get some cold air funneled down.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_barbs-0364000.png
 
KyloG said:
Yeah, you can see alot of the cold bottled up over the pole with such a compact tPV. But, a victory to me is I don't have to turn on my AC in this type pattern, that's about what I am hoping for over the next few weeks.

View attachment 31166

GEFS says enough cold air comes down to give a chance.

View attachment 31165



You can see with the weak PNA ridge we will get some cold air funneled down.

View attachment 31167
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I with you, but my confidence of those ensemble images verifying as chilly as they look is pretty low. I mean, it's all we got, so we have to run with it. But I think we've clearly shown that those longer range ensemble progs that look cold, show very little continuity with their shorter timescale counterparts.
 
Rain Cold said:
I with you, but my confidence of those ensemble images verifying as chilly as they look is pretty low. I mean, it's all we got, so we have to run with it. But I think we've clearly shown that those longer range ensemble progs that look cold, show very little continuity with their shorter timescale counterparts.
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Agreed, I don't have much confidence in any solidly BN temps until the tPV unwinds. Like I said, I'm just tired of running the AC, seasonal temps for the next few weeks will be a win.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's really astonishing how we appear to go from one bad, stable pattern to another. Big Pacific ridge of death to a big, Arctic polar vortex of death. It looks like our string of negative EPO winters is set to come to an end, while our string of positive AO/NAO winters will continue on indefinitely. It is almost impossible to believe that it is impossible to have one winter month anymore with a -AO/NAO combo. I mean, even if we incorporate the stuff which shall not be named in this thread, the law of averages/sheer luck would argue for a once in a blue moon type of deal. Wow.
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This is a bit of a stretch I’d say
 
Predictions and thoughts for the possibility of a winter storm occurrence sometime during the last week.

I have general idea's "laid out" as to what could occur during the last week. Keep in mind, predictions aren't going to be exact this early in advance. There has been a trend of high latitude blocking so far this winter as well as an active STJ. These two trends are inputted into the prediction. There's a good chance that there could be high latitude blocking in the PNA and NAO regions (over a large area in Canada) during the last week. Of course, high latitude blocking blocks westerly winds, thus forcing the northern stream to dip southward. I do not think the deep cold air would be lacking come late week.

Sub-Tropical Jet

I do believe that the sub-tropical jet would become active again come late next week and into the last week and possibly into February. We could see numerous of weather system's tracking along the southern branch. So, we could see southern sliders to Miller-A storm system's.

I think storm system's would be tracking from the far east central Pacific ocean, into the Southwestern US and eventually tracking down into the Gulf. The reason why I think so is because it's possible that there would be blocking north of Hawaii, and due to a northern stream press downstream, this would be forcing storm system's to track south. This is a very good pattern for southern winter storm development if you ask me. We're going to be getting the cold press, storm system's tracking to the south, blocking in Canada...this is great!

500h_anom.na.png

The map I made is for illustration purposes only. I know it's not one of my best made maps. It's just a rough draft if you will. So, I think most storm system's would be coming in on where I drew the storm track. But, it's also possible we could see some storm system's tracking further south along the sub-tropical jet.


WinterStormSetup.jpg
 
I still like it
e228d30e0b22fc7b4b223a6ca233256e.jpg


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NCCWOP9077 said:
I still like it
e228d30e0b22fc7b4b223a6ca233256e.jpg


Sent from my SM-J727U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It looks pretty. What's not to like? But is it real or just fantasy? This model's record has been plain bad, mainly due to being too cold. Here are the cold 2 meter anomalies to go along with that:

1579198687990.png
 
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