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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

metwannabe said:
Coastal going in the wrong direction, if its gonna happen it needs to jump on the NW trend wagon today imho. It's just too suppressed and fast flow

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Well not so fast......just need more cold and a bigger precip shield.....the low track is fine, heck another 50-75 miles east would be even better :)
 
metwannabe said:
Coastal going in the wrong direction, if its gonna happen it needs to jump on the NW trend wagon today imho. It's just too suppressed and fast flow

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Yup, something would need to change fast for that coastal. But, the time is already cut short for anything to adjust significantly. I think it's safe to say, no winter storm next week, it's just not going to work out. We're definitely going to get the cold though, much back to winter standards.

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Icon is so close
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Some good news about AAM per Maxar: Whereas it has been negative just about all month to date after having gone slightly positive around the holidays, both the GEFS and the EPS are forecastimg it to go positive soon and staying that way through the end of the month at least. As a matter of fact, they have it going to the +1.6 to +1.7 area, which would be a pretty strong +AAM and by far the strongest/longest +AAM in many months. It is more significant that GEFS has this as unlike EPS it hasn’t been +AAM biased.

What does this mean? +AAM correlates to a more El Ninoish pattern, which favors the coldest anomalies in the US to be in the southern tier for a change. This doesn’t mean we should expect relentless cold by any means. We’d probably need a -AO/-NAO as well as more supportive MJO for that. But it does give a lot of hope we’ll have a near normal 1/20-Feb overall instead of the crap we’ve had.
 
GaWx said:
Some good news about AAM per Maxar: Whereas it has been negative just about all month to date after having gone slightly negative around the holidays, both the GEFS and the EPS are forecastimg it to go positive soon and staying that way through the end of the month at least. As a matter of fact, they have it going to the +1.6 to +1.7 area, which would be a pretty strong +AAM and by far the strongest/longest +AAM in many months. It is more significant that GEFS has this as unlike EPS it hasn’t been +AAM biased.

What does this mean? +AAM correlates to a more El Ninoish pattern, which favors the coldest anomalies in the US to be in the southern tier for a change. This doesn’t mean we should expect relentless cold by any means. We’d probably need a -AO/-NAO as well as more supportive MJO for that. But it does give a lot of hope we’ll have a near normal 1/20-Feb overall instead of the crap we’ve had.
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The GEFS and EPS anomaly maps show just what you're talking about. I think they were posted earlier. They images are deceptive, in that you look at them and think COLD. But it's probably more reflective of a cool, active pattern. I'd feel pretty good about a couple of big winter storms, if the PV doesn't stay across the pond while this pattern sets up.
 
Rain Cold said:
That kicker out west is just brutal.
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I just hope we temper our expectations and realize our d10-15 and beyond threats are probably aren’t going to amount to anything. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see a complete flip in the next 24-48 hours for not only the worse, but the much worse
 
KyloG said:
Just to pile on the look for the day 12-13...it does look good and has trended nicely on the EPS.

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That looks really good to me with the 50/50 low setting up. TO RC's point, I wonder where the tPV is located late in the EPS. Is that a piece closing off SW of greenland? That should work if we could keep it there, right?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
barf sandwich..nextView attachment 31153
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Yep. I'm so tired of watching that system just spin in the middle of the country for days. That's why there's a flood of warmth for a few days. I'm a little confused because I've seen mention of such a fast flow. Why does this thing take a week to move across the country? I'm guessing because it's an ULL cutoff from the fast flow?
 
SnowNiner said:
That looks really good to me with the 50/50 low setting up. TO RC's point, I wonder where the tPV is located late in the EPS. Is that a piece closing off SW of greenland? That should work if we could keep it there, right?
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The tPV is a real problem and it will be tough to get deep cold far enough south. Why we see winter cancel going up everywhere. We have 6-7 weeks to go in a winter and nobody knows how the tPV is going to behave in early/mid February.

But, what the models are advertising looks cold "enough" to give some folks on this board a chance.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500-0083200.png
 
Probably going to be another big fantasy storm towards the end of this run. Big 50-50 low gets established after that monster of a storm on d9. You can see a 1041 dropping down out of Canada behind it. Let’s seeD633918D-A064-4D31-9279-94CB94DD0830.png
 
It looks like the 12z GFS is going to have the winter storm again for the last week. Nice energy out to the west, moisture devloping over Mexico into the southwest start at hr 246.
 
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