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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

I still like that pattern toward the end of January on the 0z EPS. Trough over the SW US with a decent STJ signal.
2a3117acf00e1e3e4c0b28fcc0357069.jpg


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NCCWOP9077 said:
I still like that pattern toward the end of January on the 0z EPS. Trough over the SW US with a decent STJ signal.
2a3117acf00e1e3e4c0b28fcc0357069.jpg


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Any experts out there know if this would be at least close to blocking? I know the higher heights are further south and west than our usual west based NAO, but looks close, and wonder if it could still lead to slowing the flow
 
The 6z GFS move back (slightly)towards the 18z solution (yesterday) for the day 9/10 system. But definitely not as impressive (some western Carolina ice). I would say this is still a time period to watch. It also still has the storm at day 13. So at least were getting fantasy solutions to show up (...the pattern is good).
 
Stormdoc said:
Any experts out there know if this would be at least close to blocking? I know the higher heights are further south and west than our usual west based NAO, but looks close, and wonder if it could still lead to slowing the flow
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For a Deep South event ideally we’d want more blocking, but for NC snow events 4” or more, there’s no blocking needed as the 50-50 low takes care of that. I *think* blocking shows up in the composite for extremely big events >8-9” or so but I’d have to run them or remember.

See this composite and compare it to the GFS runs. Pretty similar. You can see during the event (right image) there’s no blocking, just a cold HP over the low and a 50-50 low in place
6075b6f041bb42b9392a8c8318a4f7a2.jpg




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Myfrotho704_ said:
Gefs looks silent still with the coastal, I’m honestly just interested in that at this point, everything past hour 240 is meh
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Coastal going in the wrong direction, if its gonna happen it needs to jump on the NW trend wagon today imho. It's just too suppressed and fast flow

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GFS not far from a much better storm. I think if the heights over the Hudson bay were to shift south, that would lead to more CAD, and more snow. This verbatim is almost a textbook setup for winter weather. While 18z had more snow, this is the best look at H5, supportive of winter weather of the 3 runs we saw something.
1580277600-bACK3WcgPTk.png
1580277600-o4JzIawzBsQ.png

The December storm had this configuration, so this would be the height setup we would want to look for.
gfs_z500a_noram_2018120918.png

I'm still amazed by how the GFS has 3 snowy runs in a row. Hopefully this look will continue.
 
SnowNiner said:
If this is how February begins, I'll be good with that....

View attachment 31136
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Agreed. However, I think this look has shown up on every ensemble run for the last 15 days.

Today's 6z 384 image:

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_65 (2).png

Here's the GEFS at 384 for the 6z run on 1/9, which is as far back as I can go on TT:

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_65.png

Now, here's the 6z today @ 216, valid for the same time period:

today09.png

Here's the 6z 384 on 1/10, which looks slightly more like today's image:

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_65 (1).png

And, the 240 image from the 6z run today valid at the same time period:

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

I think I see a problem. I'm beginning to think that the ensembles are not quite as accurate as we want to believe.
 
Rain Cold said:
Agreed. However, I think this look has shown up on every ensemble run for the last 15 days.

Today's 6z 384 image:

View attachment 31143

Here's the GEFS at 384 for the 6z run on 1/9, which is as far back as I can go on TT:

View attachment 31138

Now, here's the 6z today @ 216, valid for the same time period:

View attachment 31139

Here's the 6z 384 on 1/10, which looks slightly more like today's image:

View attachment 31142

And, the 240 image from the 6z run today valid at the same time period:

View attachment 31141

I think I see a problem. I'm beginning to think that the ensembles are not quite as accurate as we want to believe.
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I agree. The teles has not and still do not support deep cold locking in.
 
Rain Cold said:
Agreed. However, I think this look has shown up on every ensemble run for the last 15 days.

Today's 6z 384 image:

View attachment 31143

Here's the GEFS at 384 for the 6z run on 1/9, which is as far back as I can go on TT:

View attachment 31138

Now, here's the 6z today @ 216, valid for the same time period:

View attachment 31139

Here's the 6z 384 on 1/10, which looks slightly more like today's image:

View attachment 31142

And, the 240 image from the 6z run today valid at the same time period:

View attachment 31141

I think I see a problem. I'm beginning to think that the ensembles are not quite as accurate as we want to believe.
Click to expand...
It sure seems to me that after 7-10 days the Ensembles resort back to historical teleconnection probabilities of what’s supposed to happen and not real-time dynamic computations.
 
SD said:
By the time I leave work today dews will be in the 30s

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For sure we've been down this road before. Not confident it shows up but perhaps GEFS is rushing and it'll show up a bit later? Add to the fact that the EPS looks similar toward the end maybe that's a good sign (different than last time). I'm grasping i know. Stop killing my positivity vibe man. lol. Delayed but not denied I hope.

I'm just dreaming of the TPV sitting on Greenland, ridging in western/central Canada, with a 50/50 low, and the southern stream hose shooting systems across the country in the gulf. I like it.
 
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