Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

If you love snow like myself I'm so sorry. Just about everything that could go wrong for snowlovers is going wrong in the 00z run and has-been going on for the last several runs. This is a trend and once it trends warmer and Rainier it tends to stick that way.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

I spy the death ridge coming back in the 00z run with of course another rainstorm. Enjoy the dry weather while you can! Too bad it's going to be freezing cold lol

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I like what is shown. Cold prior then turns stormy. I bet that 37 with monster rains trends colder for western NC with leftover dry cold air at the surface. Could be a major winter storm around Jan. 25th.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

Holy moly! This is is very rough. Not a good sign.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Highly doubtful western NC goes from the low to mid teens to 37 all rain as shown. Screams major winter storm for climo areas.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

Highly doubtful western NC goes from the low to mid teens to 37 all rain as shown. Screams major winter storm for climo areas.

Where do you see 37? This is the time the storm comes through. In the 50's and 60's

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

No comment

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

No comment
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Only thing I can say is cold=dry warm=wet. And timing NEVER works out for anything except rain

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Where do you see 37? This is the time the storm comes through. In the 50's and 60's

Incorrect. Try hour 240 when there is a lot of heavy precip.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Only thing I can say is cold=dry warm=wet. And timing NEVER works out for anything except rain

I’ve pondered on this for the last month; I’m starting to think we’re going to need a weak wave to score in 2020..but that STJ is juiced up and has been for some time. I don’t think it will allow it

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

Incorrect. Try hour 240 when there is a lot of heavy precip.

I did. 38 in the highest elevations. Upper 40's in Piedmont

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Incorrect. Try hour 240 when there is a lot of heavy precip.

if you can wet bulb from 37 to below freezing with dew points in the low 40’s and quickly rising, then yes warning criteria event

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

GFS hiniting at a more SERIOUS Arctic outbreak toward the end of the run. Will this pan out? Could there be a storm? The answer is probably no.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I did. 38 in the highest elevations. Upper 40's in Piedmont

Guess your wrong again for both locations.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s not zero.. Still a lot of spread

 

[BirdManDoomW]

No comment
if you can wet bulb from 37 to below freezing with dew points in the low 40’s and quickly rising, then yes warning criteria event

Like I said, I doubt climo areas warm up that quickly. My comment still stands, Winter storm potential there.

 

[SETNwx]

GFS hiniting at a more SERIOUS Arctic outbreak toward the end of the run. Will this pan out? Could there be a storm? The answer is probably no.

DT's latest video hinted at a polar vortex attack into Feb. It's certainly on the table as a possibility. CFS, yeah yeah, is showing big time arctic outbreak then:

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Like I said, I doubt climo areas warm up that quickly. My comment still stands, Winter storm potential there.

You’re right. It’s there. But that was not a wintry run for anyone. Lucky for everyone though it will change again in 6 hours

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Models usually wrong and too warm after days of cold. Be very RARE for a complete rain storm to follow on the heels of this. I would think starts as major winter weather for many esp foothills/mtns around the 25th.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Gefs members continued to show that pesky little clipper esk wave dive down trying to mueve with the coastal .. several members gives a good area of snow showers breaking out across SC and NC .. have to watch that potential and a lot more members were juiced up for the next system than last run ... we’re definitely no where near a final solution on either cases.. again no one should be panicking about a threat for one day in late February not planning out .. they won’t all pan out every time obviously ? .. y’all are looking an one operational run at 250 hours out taking it exactly verbatim .. why can’t we stop doing that when we know it’s different in 6 hours