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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

metwannabe said:
Several members are closer to a nice coastal ( a few bombs) around D6-7, the one @packfan98 and @Fountainguy97 were mentioning. It's not there yet but dang close and I'll take it at this range
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Yep its close. EURO has led the way. lets see what it has to say. Also this storm has SIGNIFICANT implications for the others downstream. If this is caught and bombs out it will change up the blocking pattern to our north. Step one in this multi-wave pattern is this first wave and what does it do.
 
GEFSSE_prec_snens_240.png
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Yep its close. EURO has led the way. lets see what it has to say. Also this storm has SIGNIFICANT implications for the others downstream. If this is caught and bombs out it will change up the blocking pattern to our north. Step one in this multi-wave pattern is this first wave and what does it do.
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Totally agree
And you can see some snow with some of the members along the Carolina coast, a couple of nice hits, but hopefully just the beginning of continued NW shift

1579021763545.png
 
Arcc said:
Yeah forget the rest at this point. The first has huge potential.
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You can see the ridge tick west and steepen, looking at your gif. That is key. It will allow the northern wave to dig. I haven't looked at vort maps yet, but I assume there will be energy in the STJ. If that's true, then a digging n/s vort will have the potential to link up with it and phase somewhere over/near the SE US. The trend in the gif looks really good, and if that continues, we will see a couple of big dog solutions show up before too long.

ETA: Incidentally, you see some riding going off in eastern Canada. It's not much, but if that trends stronger, things would slow down a little. That certainly wouldn't hurt.
 
Here is Kirk Mellish's latest blog:

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/old-man-winter-still-out-there-lurking/f6QKTQ8ki6jVx8oe01QsGM/

You all can read if you like ... he basically is saying that signs are out there about the pattern change.

Sort of off-topic, but he did have this graphic that I had not seen before. Maybe many of you have. Personally, I get lost with many of the indices we look at, such as NAO, PNA, EPO, etc. and I need to study that more. Perhaps @pcbjr would want to post this in the Wiki when it gets back up. Anyway, here is the graphic:

Region.png

Sorry that it is so large a pic!!

Looking forward to some entertaining times ahead for us all!!
 
metwannabe said:
Totally agree
And you can see some snow with some of the members along the Carolina coast, a couple of nice hits, but hopefully just the beginning of continued NW shift

View attachment 30835
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In this case the NW trend is our friend. That alone significantly increases our odds just from a numerical standpoint. This is the perfect place for a storm system to be at this range.

Just need the trend to continue.
 
metwannabe said:
Several members are closer to a nice coastal ( a few bombs) around D6-7, the one @packfan98 and @Fountainguy97 were mentioning. It's not there yet but dang close and I'll take it at this range
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Coastals just make me want to throw something most of the time. Warm nose usually ends up ruining things for the Eastern half of NC and SC. It's a very fine line we walk with the NW trend and the warm nose wins 99% of the time. The big exception for my area being the Carolina crusher, which was and is a very rare occurrence.
 
packfan98 said:
Yes. The trough axis has trended deeper, sharper, and further west. If that continues at least the coastal sections would be in play. I think there's room for it to turn the corner a bit.
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Id be worried about that one amping and coming inland. That is a big s/w diving into the Upper Midwest.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Coastals just make me want to throw something most of the time. Warm nose usually ends up ruining things for the Eastern half of NC and SC. It's a very fine line we walk with the NW trend and the warm nose wins 99% of the time. The big exception for my area being the Carolina crusher, which was and is a very rare occurrence.
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That's why we're fine with it near Bermuda at this range!
 
starting to notice, even the members that have a late bloomer show snow from the trough/clipper itself, and with such a deep trough like that likely means convective SN showers from very cold air aloft, but i honesty think the coastal is gonna trend NW so that's just another possible thing at this point
 
Snowed In said:
View attachment 30837
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This is what I was talking about the other day...having lots of members showing something and a few showing a big dog. If you're in eastern NC, for example, you have 14 members giving you snow or having it really close to you. And you have 2 or 3 really significant or big dog events. It tells you that you'd better pay attention and that you might need to really, really pay attention. That's what you want to see. And you want to see it hold, obviously.
 
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