Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[GeorgiaGirl]

That maybe would've been REALLY golden if that energy that I spotted on the vort maps didn't split...as it is it's still a good winter storm, and with how it looks with that big HP, there'd definitely probably be more wintry for longer...

Either way, we keep seeing the potential for this week.

 

[Ollie Williams]

If we could have gotten that ridge to move a tad west, so the 50/50 low could stay, then this would have been a big-dog.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

If we could have gotten that ridge to move a tad west, so the 50/50 low could stay, then this would have been a big-dog.
View attachment 30775

There's still time for that

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

850’s really scoured our quickly over the Carolinas even with a deep track across central Florida..too early for details but still deserves a “SMH”

 

[Avalanche]

It looked like that HP got dislodged from the most favorable position.

 

[Stormlover]

Lot's of opportunities coming up. Fun times ahead!

 

[Ollie Williams]

If we could have gotten that ridge to move a tad west, so the 50/50 low could stay, then this would have been a big-dog.
View attachment 30775

Unfortunately the wave around BC is causing the ridge to move east. If we can somehow eliminate that, it’s game on.


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[ForsythSnow]

If we could have gotten that ridge to move a tad west, so the 50/50 low could stay, then this would have been a big-dog.
View attachment 30775

Between this run and last at least it looks to have. Still lots of time to pull it a bit more west. It's like trying to angle a slide perfectly to land in the pool and make a cannonball. Too close and you'll miss. But at just the right position we can land it. I think another 100 to 200 or so miles and we're golden

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Unfortunately the wave around BC is causing the ridge to move east. If we can somehow eliminate that, it’s game on.


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I think it’s been said before that the American model can be a little fast with the NS?

 

[Stormdoc]

GFS nor any model will not have a clue about where to focus all the energy yet. It is Looking more likely we will have a good cold air source and some southern stream lift. I’ll be watching to see if the trough will have that ever so slight west to east northeast orientation Larry always harps about so that we can get the energy to go just under the cold air without getting squashed. As always , hard to score here but has potential.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

There is way too much going on. Multiple waves. Multiple areas under threat from Texas to Florida. Gonna be a crazy week of solutions ranging from nothing to a blizzard.

 

[deltadog03]

So dare I say that is really an almost ideal setup. Have the cold hold a bit longer and holy moly.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

 

[Ethan80963]

Quite a few GEFS members have snow/ice for CAD areas and even some outside CAD areas. Maybe even more than the 18z run. For the Saturday system

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Damn, just need those 850s a little cooler for the 22-25th system.

 

[Storm5]

System after system . One thing is for sure , some late nights ahead


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The ensemble snow mean won’t knock your socks off, but the southern extent of it is pretty telling.

 

[VegasEagle]

The ensemble snow mean won’t knock your socks off, but the southern extent of it is pretty telling.View attachment 30779

Should a thread be started soon?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Should a thread be started soon?

I honestly think it should be for early next weeks threat.. it is clear what we’re looking at here... either a big time storm for many or a sur pressed wave of arctic air ... this is clear STORM POTENTIAL so I would believe it would warrant its own thread where we track whether or not we get that phase or not .. it’s also inside 200 hours so like let’s pull the trigger?

cause a thread doesn’t guarantee there will be a storm right? Just that we are tracking the storm potential and I think we the storm would look like if it were to materialize

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I don't think a thread is necessary yet. We're still really looking at a full week of potential over narrowing it down, although based on a couple recent runs, we might be getting closer.