Six Mile Wx
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
You kind of need the ridge to be amplified in this particular case. A flatter ridge and its certainly flat and out to sea. A steeper ridge allows you to almost get into an omega block look. This would be what causes the flow along the SE coast to veer more out of the south, increase divergence and get the surface low closer to the coast.
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Six Mile Wx
Member
I agree with what you're getting at. Western blocking can be good, but it also can be bad depending of the nature of the ridge. I would rather see ridging along the western coast/into the Rockies that's not buckling northward too step and not pushing southeast or east. A ridge that's buckles too much could cause suppression down stream over our area. I also don't like how this ridge is causing the trough to dive very steep.
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Six Mile Wx
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Thanks for posting. How does this compare to 12z?
Six Mile Wx
Member
18z
12z
12z
Six Mile Wx
Member
Yeah, don't look to good for NC! How about Ice does it include ice on them maps? Thanks for posting!
Six Mile Wx
Member
There’s no separate parameter for sleet and freezing rain on the EPS.
Is there a way you could find a mslp (high/low pressure map to see if CAD got stronger vs previous runs? You don’t have to but Thanks if you do
Easy to see why that weekend event is coming back, stronger trough associated with the 50/50 low helps out with more low level CAA, and the trough in the NE has definitely been adjusting slightly south each run, which makes a pretty decent difference, likely why the high has been trending stronger 
on the gefs you can definitely see that trend of a stronger HP/CAD 
on the gefs you can definitely see that trend of a stronger HP/CAD 
ATLwxfan
Member
Problem with the CAD event is that it looks like it just gets washed out. Could always trend to a stronger wedge I suppose.
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Yeah with that storm track it’s not gonna b nothing crazy, initial snow/sleet/ZR to rain but CAD areas along the escarpment have a better shot as always
Nomanslandva
Member
00z first shot, ICON went the wrong way for weekend ice.
Edit: wedge is there east of the mountains just less precip east.
Edit: wedge is there east of the mountains just less precip east.
Less confluence
Our Friday night system coming into view should be getting well sampled. 
0z ICON has pockets of Wilkes/Surry at or below 32 for the entire event. Something to watch for sure if CAD ticks another degree cooler over the next four days.
Nomanslandva
Member
Yea, it was not as cold/deep but it held longer.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
With the ICON showing the wedge and being below freezing, I am really paying attention. The ICON is usually pretty warm with surface temps.