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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Rain Cold said:
Taking the model verbatim, yes. But you know that solution is going to change, and 8 out of 10 times, late bloomers become perfect bloomers to early bloomers to change your bloomers in the rain.
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... and the banker never wears a mack in the pouring (cold) rain ... :eek: ...very strange ...
 
This is so close to being something special. In the gfs scenario less kicker and its bombs away
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I think this is the peak of this MJO phase 5, amp of 3.53!

2020 1 12 3.3188388 1.2038326 5 3.5304255
 
Rain Cold said:
Taking the model verbatim, yes. But you know that solution is going to change, and 8 out of 10 times, late bloomers become perfect bloomers to early bloomers to change your bloomers in the rain.
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Yeah, things will adjust as time closes in. But, I'm not expecting any major changes really. Looking up at the 500mb, I don't like how there is a ridge out west that is massive, it buckles all the way into Canada...basically a big upside down "U" that is making things rough for us. Extreme tall ridging over the Rockies/Great Plains into Canada is no good. If this ridge was further west, I would be interested.
gfs_z500_vort_us_33.png

gfs_z500a_us_33.png
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I need this to happen again and be stronger with more snow than rain for the whole southeast... I was only 3 years old when this happen so I don't remember it and need for it to happen again so I can say I experienced being older
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Not saying that its impossible, but the 93 Blizzard was a once in a lifetime type of event; truly one of a kind. Very unlikely that a generation who experienced that will see something like that twice
 
WxWatch said:
Yeah, things will adjust as time closes in. But, I'm not expecting any major changes really. Looking up at the 500mb, I don't like how there is a ridge out west that is massive, it buckles all the way into Canada...basically a big upside down "U" that is making things rough for us. Extreme tall ridging over the Rockies/Great Plains into Canada is no good. If this ridge was further west, I would be interested.
View attachment 30731

View attachment 30732
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Yeah I agree, it's not perfect as shown. But what I'm trying to say is that we're studying a 192 hour image. Not only are there going to be changes between now and then, there are going to be LARGE changes. I mean, at 0z, there might be a 500 mile difference in the ridge placement. Heck, there may not even be a ridge at all. And all of this reminds me that we're analyzing the details of a 192 storm! Why are we even doing this lol?

All we really know is that the pattern is probably going to be ripe for a storm pretty soon.
 
deltadog03 said:
What’s interesting in that is, less kicker=looks more like the euro run today.
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Exactly but the euro evolution has some complexities that are worry some. Watch how it pinches off the AK ridge then it eventually becomes what helps suppress and cut off the energy over our region. I'm not saying it's impossible but I don't want to keep adding layers to my tootsie roll pop
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BIG FROSTY said:
Man 18z ICON looks very interesting for Friday night/ Saturday for CAD areas in NC
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Agree. It starts off with the classic iso 700/850mb convergent iso band locks in the wedge and goes to an ice storm. If the euro gets on board giddy up for the first wintry precip of the season I think

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I saw someone ask about it earlier but shouldn’t the 18z eps be in range of the system. And could someone post the 18z eps I’m curious how it looks?
 
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