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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg4333#msg4333 date=1483031122]
Is it just me or does the 12z GFS OP not look as great with blocking versus yesterday?  Could be a  reason.. GEFS will be more telling about that.
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the op has been the fastest among all guidance to slide the block out. gefs continues to say it's wrong

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[/quote]

Okay, so we want what the Euro has been showing to materialize to maximize our chances then?  Trying to get caught up on everything.. and looks like Euro has the best look at 500mb.
 
The gfs looks like it put a little more energy down toward southern California and the response was enough ridging to keep the Carolinas warmer. The north Atlantic was a little improved

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=60.msg4327#msg4327 date=1483030869]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4323#msg4323 date=1483030678]
funny thing is that run verbatim was a NW trend for the Carolinas and a SE trend for Texas and Mississippi . the block needs to hang a touch longer

the high placement that run needs to be further east to get a bigger cold push into the Carolinas

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Yeah let's see what the gefs looks like, that blocking was problematic for us NC folks, touch weaker and transient but still there so I still have hope
[/quote]
anyone giving up over a week out is crazy. not saying you at all just in general. the gefs will look great for your area. it's almost like the op didn't know what to do with the energy . had two healthy pieces out west and tried to get them to interact. the last wave should kick the energy a little sooner allowing the flow to be a little more progressive with the High sliding east vs dragging it's heels like it did on the op .

of course you give some 2 feet on the ground and they would complain it piled up the wrong way

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[/quote]

Heck I'm an eternal optimist I never give up haha

yeah that run was a little wonky for us, never get a good high placement and the lp not strong enough to draw cold air but yet a perfect storm track...  not sure if I mentioned this or not but imho this is one of those rare occasions where there may be a better chance of a colder trend versus the usual dreaded NW trend.
 
Shawn link said:
Is it just me or does the 12z GFS OP not look as great with blocking versus yesterday?  Could be a  reason.. GEFS will be more telling about that.
Click to expand...

Yep, its not nearly as strong and moves it out quicker.
 
SD link said:
The gfs looks like it put a little more energy down toward southern California and the response was enough ridging to keep the Carolinas warmer. The north Atlantic was a little improved

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Click to expand...

Ok I could see the ridging that kept NC a little warmer but wasn't sure if it was a result of the blocking being weaker/exiting sooner but you just explained that..... thanks.
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4338#msg4338 date=1483031426]
The gfs looks like it put a little more energy down toward southern California and the response was enough ridging to keep the Carolinas warmer. The north Atlantic was a little improved

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Click to expand...

Ok I could see the ridging that kept NC a little warmer but wasn't sure if it was a result of the blocking being weaker/exiting sooner but you just explained that..... thanks.
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Honestly I've been only looking at total precip maps and not so much the setup so I could be a little off base. I just flipped back through a few gfs runs and saw that

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12zGFS


gfs_z500aNorm_namer_35.png


0Z Euro

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png
 
I'm not worried at all either ATM. I think that freezing line will be further south as the moisture spreads from west to east.

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Plus we need to keep an eye on that HP at hr 216.

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12z gefs has some huge members but also looks a touch warmer vs previous runs

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Storm5 link said:
12z gefs has some huge members but also looks a touch warmer vs previous runs

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Click to expand...

Yeah but the blocking looks better on the gefs then the op.... it's the fine line we walk in the SE
 
Looking at individual members on the GEFS, and it's crazy this far out how many of them fairly close to the same areas being affected

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Storm5 link said:
good lord the gefs mean is nuts
4a5d8535d618dd426835fe1ebc17af6e.jpg


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Lol, I was just about to post that. Another step in the right direction.

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Look at how many individual members are really not that far apart, especially for a D10 ensemble

70af88c522c54ff795e80ee436396942.jpg


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