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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
12z cmc has 40s and 50s next Friday and Saturday .....woot

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That's normal. I'll take normal at this point!


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If this event ends up mainly the first wave, it's a major ice storm in northern NC and southern VA. Or close to it at least, and close to rain, as well.
 
Not as much snow, this would be a big icy mess for most areas

bbf49376b2a29a155f8da8ba4d3a2d61.jpg


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Brick Tamland link said:
Close for some ice here. Maybe the ensembles and Euro will be better. Still plenty of time to go.
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the eps is on your side. no need to worry this far out having the best guidance on the planet in your corner.  over 40 members out 51 give you wintry weather

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What's the realistic chance of an actual colder trend in the models over the next few days?
 
Still plenty of time to go BOOM!!! With a powerful low to our west I would think the GFS is underestimating the cold? I like where we are this far out. One thing that gets me excited is everytime DFW get a snow usually we do too, well seemed that way when I was a kid, lol
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

funny thing is that run verbatim was a NW trend for the Carolinas and a SE trend for Texas and Mississippi . the block needs to hang a touch longer

the high placement that run needs to be further east to get a bigger cold push into the Carolinas

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accu35 link said:
Still plenty of time to go BOOM!!! With a powerful low to our west I would think the GFS is underestimating the cold? I like where we are this far out. One thing that gets me excited is everytime DFW get a snow usually we do too, well seemed that way when I was a kid, lol
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It was like that in Feb 10, Dallas got a huge snow and then everyone east got a big snow, even SW Alabama managed to get 8 inches of snow.
 
If NCEP and ECWF wanna save computing power and really increase computing power, then stop running the OPs past 4 days tops. Only run the upper levels and Ensembles past that point lol. OPs are almost useless at this range.

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
funny thing is that run verbatim was a NW trend for the Carolinas and a SE trend for Texas and Mississippi . the block needs to hang a touch longer

the high placement that run needs to be further east to get a bigger cold push into the Carolinas

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Yeah let's see what the gefs looks like, that blocking was problematic for us NC folks, touch weaker and transient but still there so I still have hope 
 
accu35 link said:
When's the CMC come out?
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It's out and not Wintry for the South as a whole.

Edit: parts of NC see some mixing/icing.  some wrap around snow in TN.
 
RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=60.msg4321#msg4321 date=1483030562]
Still plenty of time to go BOOM!!! With a powerful low to our west I would think the GFS is underestimating the cold? I like where we are this far out. One thing that gets me excited is everytime DFW get a snow usually we do too, well seemed that way when I was a kid, lol
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It was like that in Feb 10, Dallas got a huge snow and then everyone east got a big snow, even SW Alabama managed to get 8 inches of snow.
[/quote] yeah I remembered that one, even then models struggled with that one. Not saying it's always right but all that snow in Texas won't go to waist coming east. I would like to see the wind field on it
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

metwannabe link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4323#msg4323 date=1483030678]
funny thing is that run verbatim was a NW trend for the Carolinas and a SE trend for Texas and Mississippi . the block needs to hang a touch longer

the high placement that run needs to be further east to get a bigger cold push into the Carolinas

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Yeah let's see what the gefs looks like, that blocking was problematic for us NC folks, touch weaker and transient but still there so I still have hope
[/quote]
anyone giving up over a week out is crazy. not saying you at all just in general. the gefs will look great for your area. it's almost like the op didn't know what to do with the energy . had two healthy pieces out west and tried to get them to interact. the last wave should kick the energy a little sooner allowing the flow to be a little more progressive with the High sliding east vs dragging it's heels like it did on the op .

of course you give some 2 feet on the ground and they would complain it piled up the wrong way

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Is it just me or does the 12z GFS OP not look as great with blocking versus yesterday?  Could be a  reason.. GEFS will be more telling about that.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg4313#msg4313 date=1483030118]
Close for some ice here. Maybe the ensembles and Euro will be better. Still plenty of time to go.
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the eps is on your side. no need to worry this far out having the best guidance on the planet in your corner.  over 40 members out 51 give you wintry weather

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[/quote]

Yeah, so close to a big storm. And it does show some ice here that could cause problems. Wow on the other board had a great post about how close it is for a major storm, and the Euro usually handles this setup better this far out.
 
Shawn link said:
Is it just me or does the 12z GFS OP not look as great with blocking versus yesterday?  Could be a  reason.. GEFS will be more telling about that.
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the op has been the fastest among all guidance to slide the block out. gefs continues to say it's wrong

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I'm not worried at all ATM, there's going to be a storm, and someone in the southeast will be happy. I honestly believe future models will come in colder. Can't wait for the King Euro
 
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